PROJECT 5.6: The carbon budget of continental Australia and possible future trajectories
Tracking changes in global and Australian greenhouse gas emissions is vital for understanding our commitments under the Paris Agreement. Australia’s net carbon balance (carbon budget) is made up of carbon sources (primarily from burning fossil fuels and land-use change) and carbon sinks (vegetation and oceans which remove emissions from the atmosphere). While climate change policies seek to manage Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions, knowledge gaps exist on how the full carbon budget can best be managed to reduce emissions and increase carbon sinks.
We’re continuing to track Australia’s carbon sources and sinks and are developing a comprehensive carbon budget for Australia for the most recent decade. We’re estimating how the budget may change in the future using climate scenarios and socio-economic pathways. The projections will be consistent with the Australian National Outlook integrated assessment modelling for Australia.
We’re also supporting the development of an enhanced global carbon budget, through the international Global Carbon Project, to support the global policy call to better estimate and track the path towards global zero net greenhouse gas emissions.
This will provide a clearer picture on the national and global mitigation efforts required under the Paris Agreement, and will inform national and international climate change policy decision-making.
For more information
Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO
This project is contributing to the following climate challenge:
Research in this project will assess the potential of land-based carbon sequestration and its vulnerability under future climates. It will also track Australian and global carbon budgets.
This work will provide agricultural and environmental systems managers with better climate information with which to make management decisions.
Publications and papers
- Cernusak LA, Haverd V, Brendel O, Thiec DL, Guehl JM, Cuntz M. 2019. Robust response of terrestrial plants to rising CO2, Trends in Plant Science, 24(7), pp. 578-586, doi: 10.1016/j.tplants.2019.04.003 | Abstract
- Friedlingstein et al. 2019. Global Carbon Budget, Earth Systems Science Data, 11, 1-56, doi:10.5194/essd-11-1-2019 | Full paper