Developing and delivering improved climate change projections for Australia

PROJECT 5.3: Regional climate change projections science and delivery

To make informed decisions about managing current and future climate risks, decision makers across government, industry and business require access to credible, up-to-date, useable and relevant information on future changes to our climate.

We’re enhancing the functionality of the current suite of national climate change projections for existing and new users, including new analysis and communication products and updates to tools and guidance materials. The useability of the current projections will be supported through the provision of enhanced training and outreach activities, and tailored information and datasets to meet the needs of decision makers and stakeholders. This will ensure users are better able to integrate climate change projections into their decision-making processes, leading to enhanced climate-resilience and sustainable development across Australia.

We’re also building the underpinning projections science and modelling capability required for a future major release of new national projections. This includes applying new methods and addressing knowledge gaps to advance the science and modelling capability for the future next-generation of climate change projections for Australia.

We will also facilitate and contribute to the coordination and development of plans for the delivery of a future major release of national climate change projections, bringing together key research agencies, funders and users to ensure future national projections are salient, relevant and accessible.

For more information

Dr Michael Grose, CSIRO

 

This project is contributing to the following climate challenges:

Hydroclimate and water resources.

HYDROCLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES
The regional projections delivered in this project will provide water managers with access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material and training to support decision making.

Food security, ecosystems and NRM.

FOOD SECURITY, ECOSYSTEMS AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Primary producers, conservation managers and natural resource managers will make better-informed management decisions using the regional projections developed in this project.

Extremes and disaster risk management.

EXTREMES AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
As a result of work undertaken in this project, disaster risk managers will have better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained.
Project publications and papers
  • Colman RA, Soldatenko S. 2020. Understanding the links between climate feedbacks, variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model. Climate Dynamics, 54, 3441–3459, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05189-3 | Abstract
  • Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Clarke H, Sharples J, Hirsch A, Hart MA. 2020. Climate change significantly alters future wildfire mitigation opportunities in south eastern Australia, Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2020GL088893 | Abstract
  • Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Di Luca A, Grose MR, Round V, Thatcher M. 2020. Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05250-1 | Abstract
  • Grose MR et al. 2020. Insights from CMIP6 for Australia’s Future Climate. Earth’s Future, 8 (5), doi: 10.1029/2019EF001469 | Full paper
  • Grose MR, Black MT, Wang G, King AD, Hope P, Karoly DJ. 2020. The warm and extremely dry spring in 2015 in Tasmania contained the fingerprint of human influence on the climate. J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci. doi:10.22499/3.6901.011 | Full paper
  • Narsey SY, Brown JR, Colman R, Delage F, Power S, Moise A, Zhang H. 2020. Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 models. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2019GL086816 | Abstract
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