Carbon cycle and future warming

As Earth’s climate continues to warm, global carbon budgets are playing an increasingly important role in informing mitigation policy responses around the world. We explain how they work and how they are used.

Research, published today in Nature Climate Change, found that emissions drops during COVID-19 could soon be undone, as unchecked economic recovery would see global emissions bounce back to pre-pandemic levels.

The Global Carbon Budget, released today, has found that global fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 are expected to decline by approximately 7% in 2020.

Methane emissions have continued to rise over the past decade and are tracking concentrations consistent with the warmest IPCC scenario.

Global emissions for 2019 are predicted to hit 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), setting yet another all-time record. This disturbing result means emissions have grown by 62% since international climate negotiations began in 1990 to address the problem.

The figures are contained in the Global Carbon Project, which today released its 14th Global Carbon Budget.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas contributing to human-induced climate change. A new technique could restore methane concentrations to pre-industrial levels.

06 December 2018 Pep Canadell, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen Peters, Robbie Andrew and Rob Jackson Pep Canadell is the Lead Chief Investigator in the ESCC Hub’s Project 2.9: Risk assessment…

We’ve updated Australia’s national climate model, the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), so it can participate in CMIP6 and therefore be used by national and international climate researchers.

We’ve analysed past climate variability and extremes to enhance our understanding of the underpinning climate drivers, and shed light on the extent to which these extreme events are influenced by human activities.

We’ve used data collected from ocean monitoring (historical archives, Argo floats and research vessels) to improve understanding of past changes in ocean temperature and salinity. We also used this data to identify sources of bias in ocean heat update efficiency in climate models, as well as to examine the connection between ocean salinity changes and water balance over Australia.

We’ve improved confidence in projections, particularly rainfall projections; run targeted workshops, presentations and training to better identify user needs and help stakeholders access climate change information; and produced more targeted projection products for stakeholders to use in decision-making.