PROJECT 2.7: Refining Australia’s water futures
This project ran from 1 July 2016 until 30 June 2019
Information about, and analyses of, future water availability are critical for water resources planning and investment decisions; however, consistent projections for a range of hydroclimate variables (e.g. rainfall, surface run off, lateral water flow, soil moisture) and drought metrics are not currently available.
We’ve worked with state and federal government and water managers to identify gaps in hydroclimate metrics and improve climate-water modelling. Building on existing science, we have develop methods to deliver next generation projections of future water availability and hydrologic variables or metrics important to the water and related sectors.
This will improve Australia’s ability to assess the impact of climate change on Australia’s hydroclimates and water resources, and inform planning and climate change adaptation in the water and related sectors.
Outcomes from this project will be used in the current Hub Project 5.4 – Water futures under climate change.
Key project achievements include:
- Improved and undertook integrated climate-water modelling and projections
- Developed and implemented research case studies with key stakeholders in the water sector, gaining an improved understanding of the water sector’s climate change information needs and challenges
For more information
Dr Dewi Kirono, CSIRO
Watch the project 2.7 summary video
Publications and papers
- Cernusak LA, Haverd V, Brendel O, Thiec DL, Guehl JM, Cuntz M. 2019. Robust response of terrestrial plants to rising CO2, Trends in Plant Science, 24(7), pp. 578-586, doi: 10.1016/j.tplants.2019.04.003 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by Elsevier Ltd. Copyright 2019 Elsevier Ltd. | Abstract
- Chiew FHS, Zheng H, Potter NJ, Ekstrom M, Grose MR, Kirono DGC, Zhang L, Vaze J. 2017. Future runoff projections for Australia and science challenges in producing next generation projections. Proceedings of the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, December 2017, pp. 1745–1751 | Conference proceedings
- Ekström M, Gutmann ED, Wilby RL, Tye MR, Kirono DGC. 2018. Robustness of hydroclimate metrics for climate change impact research. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, doi:10.1002/wat2.1288 | Full paper
- Haverd V, Smith B, Nieradzik L, Briggs PR, Woodgate W, Trudinger, CM, Canadell JG. 2017. A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4546), incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of electron transport and carboxylation capacity-limited photosynthesis. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-33, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2017-265 | Full paper
- Kirono DGC, Grose MR, Hennessy KJ. 2017. Increasing risk of months with low rainfall and high temperature in southeast Australia for the past 150 years. Climate Risk Management, 16, 10–21, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2017.04.001 | Full paper
- Trudinger C, Haverd V, Canadell P, Briggs P, Smith B. 2018. Model-data fusion framework to assess the vulnerability of Australian carbon stocks and water resources, EGU General Assembly 2018. Geophysical Research Abstracts | Abstract
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenges:
Improved modelling developed in this project will enhance the quality of projections that are available to water managers and planners.
Agricultural and environmental system managers and planners will be able to use projections developed from work in this project to make more effective management and investment decisions.