In order to prepare for the future, we need to make informed and climate-smart decisions today. Climate change projections provide us with insights into how our climate is likely to change in the future under a range of emission scenarios. This information helps to underpin the robustness of Australia’s capacity to manage a dynamic and changing climate and to reduce the most dangerous impacts of climate change.
Climate change projections for Australia are produced about every 7-8 years, in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. Updating our national projections ensures they take into account increasing understanding of climate processes, improvements in climate modelling and new understanding of user information needs.
The Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub has supported the need for an update to our national climate change projections, leading a working group of research partners to discuss the next generation of climate change projections, including what they would entail, how they would be presented and the best approach.
That’s why in 2019 the National Climate Science Advisory Committee (NCSAC) requested that the ESCC Hub prepare a plan for a program of next-generation climate projections for Australia.
The ESCC Hub report to the NCSAC has recently been released, informed by stakeholder consultation, analysis of new and existing modelling approaches, insights from national and international projections initiatives and an assessment of different approaches for regional climate projections.
This report sets out options for an update to Australia’s national projections, including key priorities, a proposed approach and information and technical needs to be considered when planning for the next generation of climate change projections for Australia. It also points out the importance of active collaboration and coordination with state-led initiatives on regional climate projections.
Information contained within the report will also provide important input for current initiatives in this space, such as the responses to recommendations from the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, development of a national climate services capability for Australia and the new Climate Systems Hub, funded through the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.
Read the ESCC Hub report to the NCSAC on Australia’s next generation of regional climate projections.
This report was prepared under the ESCC Hub Case Study 6.9: Australia’s next generation climate projections: a report to the National Climate Science Advisory Committee.
Report authors include experts from across CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, University of NSW and the University of Melbourne.
Professor David Karoly, ESCC Hub Leader