PROJECT 5.8: Marine and coastal climate services for extremes information
Australia is a coastal nation. Changes in our coastal climate, through sea-level, waves, marine heatwaves and coastal extremes, have broad implications for a range of coastal stakeholders such as coastal councils, environmental managers, engineers, infrastructure designers and aquaculture and fisheries industries.
We’ve improved understanding of how marine and coastal extremes are changing by investigating and analysing a range of coastal and near-shore variables, including sea-level trends, current and future marine heat waves, extreme sea-levels, waves, estimates of ocean mass increases and the effects of wind, waves, sea-level rise and storm surges on sediment compartments.
We’ve also developed a suite of science-based data and information products and services tailored to the priority needs of coastal managers and decision-makers. To do this, we’ve worked with stakeholders to ensure our research is appropriately consolidated and delivered via a readily available range of tools and data-delivery mechanisms.
This research has informed the next generation of coastal climate projections for Australia. It will also lead to a more aware coastal population, armed with the tools and improved knowledge to better assess climate risks and improve coastal planning and management decisions and activities.
For more information
Dr Kathleen McInnes, CSIRO
- Insights into updating and using sea-level rise projections – outlines work under the ESCC Hub to contributed to international research to better understand and estimate future sea-level rise, including revised contributions from melting Antarctic ice sheets; and how sea-level rise projections are used, and the best approaches to developing, tailoring and communicating these projections based on the needs of users.
- Understanding future extreme sea level events for Sydney’s beaches and harbour – outlines research by the ESCC Hub which has investigated how extreme sea level events may change for Sydney’s beaches and harbour under a warmer climate.
- Marine heatwaves off Western Australia: future projections – outlines work by the ESCC Hub to investigated the likelihood of marine heatwaves with a similar intensity and duration occurring on the coast of Western Australia in the future.
- Marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea: future projections – outlines work by the ESCC Hub to investigated the likelihood of marine heatwaves with a similar intensity and duration to these two events occurring in the Tasman Sea in the future.
- Climate change services for Australia’s blue economy – The ESCC Hub has established a set of climate change projection products to support development of offshore climate change management and adaptation strategies.
- Wind-wave climate change along Australia’s coast – outlines ESCC Hub research to assess how wind-waves may change around Australia under a future warmer climate.
- Sea-level rise information for councils – our researchers have prepared comprehensive sea-level projections for all coastal councils in Australia, making it easier for council planners and managers to know how sea-level rise will affect their council.
- Making coastal hazards information accessible – the Hub has re-developed a much used but old sea-level research website into a new portal that brings together information on an expanded range of coastal hazards including sea-level change, waves, coastal extremes and ocean energy.
- Understanding marine heatwaves – provides a science update on current global and Australian trends in marine heatwaves, future trends and the role of climate change.
Publications and papers:
- Echevarria ER, Hemer MA, Holbrook NJ, Marshall AG. 2020. Influence of the Pacific‐South American Modes on the Global Spectral Wind‐Wave Climate. JGR-Oceans, doi: 10.1029/2020JC016354 | Full paper
- Holbrook NJ, et al. 2020: Keeping pace with marine heatwaves. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. doi: 10.1038/s43017-020-0068-4 | Full paper
- Lemos, G., M. Menendez, A. Semedo, P. Camus, M. Hemer, M. Dobrynin, and P. Miranda, 2020. On the need of bias correction methods for wave climate projections. Global and Planetary Change, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103109 | Abstract
- Li Z, NJ Holbrook, X Zhang, ECJ Oliver and EA Cougnon, 2020: Remote forcing of Tasman Sea marine heatwaves. Journal of Climate, 33, pp. 5337-5354, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0641.1 | Full paper
- Melet A, Almar R, Hemer M, Le Cozannet G, Meyssignac B, Ruggiero P. 2020. Contribution of Wave Setup to Projected Coastal Sea Level Changes. JGR-Oceans, doi:10.1029/2020JC016078 | Full paper
- Meucci A, Young IR, Hemer M, Kirezci E, Ranasinghe Roshanka. 2020. Projected 21st century changes in extreme wind-wave events, Science Advances, 6(24), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz7295 | Full paper
- Morim J, Trenham C, Hemer M. et al. 2020. A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models. Scientific Data, 7, 105, doi:10.1038/s41597-020-0446-2 | Full paper
- O’Grady J, Babanin A, McInnes K. 2019. Downscaling Future Longshore Sediment Transport in South Eastern Australia, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 7 (289), doi:10.3390/jmse7090289 | Full paper
- O’Grady JG, Hemer MA, McInnes KL, Trenham CE, Stephenson AG. 2021. Projected incremental changes to extreme wind-driven wave heights for the twenty-first century. Science Reports, 11(8826), doi:10.1038/s41598-021-87358-w | Full paper
- O’Grady JO, McInnes KL, Hemer MA, Hoeke RK, Stephenson A, Colberg F, 2019. Extreme water levels for Australian beaches using empirical equations for shoreline wave setup. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, doi:10.1029/2018JC014871 | This is the peer-reviewed version, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014871. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
- Marshall AG, Hemer MA, McInnes KL, 2019. Australian blocking impacts on ocean surface waves. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05058-8 | Full paper
- Oliver ECJ, et. al. 2019. Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact. Frontiers in Marine Science, 734, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00734 | Full paper
- Oliver ECJ, Benthuysen JA, Darmaraki S, Donat MG, Hobday AJ, Holbrook J, Schlegel R, Sen Gupta A. 2021. Marine heatwaves. Annual Review of Marine Science, 13, 1-26, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-032720-095144 | Abstract
- Shimura T, Hemer M, Lenton A, Chamberlain MA, Monselesan D. 2020. Impacts of Ocean Wave‐Dependent Momentum Flux on Global Ocean Climate. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2020GL089296 | Abstract
- Smith GA, Hemer M, Greenslade D, Trenham C, Zieger S, Durrant T. 2020. Global wave hindcast with Australian and Pacific Island Focus: From past to present. Geoscience Data Journal, doi:10.1002/gdj3.104 | Full paper
- Holbrook NJ, Claar DC, Hobday AJ, McInnes KL, Oliver ECJ, Sen Gupta A, Widlansky MJ, Zhang X. 2020. ENSO-Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, Chapter 18, American Geophysical Union, Wiley.
This project is contributing to the following climate challenge:
The sea level projections and analysis of extreme events and wave conditions developed in this project are critical inputs to improved coastal planning.
Work in this project will enhance our ability to project changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate conditions, which will better inform infrastructure planning.