PROJECT 2.9: Risk assessment of future carbon sources and sinks
This project ran from 1 July 2016 until 30 June 2019
Policy makers need information on carbon and greenhouse gases so they can develop successful national policies and international engagement to achieve climate mitigation targets. They also need robust evidence to help identify effective carbon mitigation options. Revegetation is a potentially low-cost option, but we have lacked data on how climate change will affect uptake and availability of nutrients and water, and how this will affect plant growth (and potential to store carbon).
We’ve developed models that we used to assess the potential of revegetation and conservation activities in Australia to remove carbon from the atmosphere. We have also looked at how vulnerable the mitigation potential is to climate change. This research will help determine the potential for land-based mitigation options in Australia, which will inform both Australia’s climate change and greenhouse gas policies, and growing carbon markets.
We have also produce national and global carbon budget data products that show how carbon dioxide and methane levels are tracking on the pathways needed for global climate stabilisation by the end of the 21st century.
In addition, we also supported Australia’s involvement in the Global Carbon Project.
Outcomes from this project will be used in the current Hub Project 5.6 – The carbon budget of continental Australia and possible future trajectories.
Key project achievements include:
- Added a land use change module to Australia’s national climate model, ACCESS, to better understand carbon sources and sinks in Australia
- Provided leadership and data to the Global Carbon Project – which provides information on emissions and carbon budgets to governments around the world
- Built relationships with Australian Government stakeholder, enabling us to better understand their information needs and to provide advice and information on carbon cycle related matters
For more information
Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO
Watch the Project 2.9 summary video
Publications and papers
- Bastos et al. 2018. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, doi: Full paper |
- Buermann et al. 2018. Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity. Nature 562, 110-114, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0555-7 | Full paper
- Cheng L, Zhang L, Wang Y-P, Canadell JG, Chiew FHS, Beringer J, Li L, Miralles DG, Piao S, Zhang Y. 2017. Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle, Nature Communications, 8, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00114-5 | Full paper
- Dass P, Houlton BZ, Wang YP, Warlind D. 2018. Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California. Environmental Research Letters 13. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39 | Full paper
- Fleischer K, Rammin A, De Kauwe MG, Walker AP, Dominues TF, Fuchslueueger L, Garcia S, Goll DS, Grandis A, Jiang M, Haverd V, Hofhansl F, Holm JA, Kruit B, Leung F, Medlyn BE, Mercado LM, Norby RJ, Pak B, von Randow C, Quesada CA, Schaap KJ, Valverde-Barrantes OJ, Wang YP, Yang X, Zaehle S, Zhu Q, Lapola DM. 2019. Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition, Nature Geoscience, 12, 736-741, doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0404-9 | Abstract
- Fernández-Martínez M, Sardans J, Chevallier F, Ciais P, Obersteiner M, Vicca S, Canadell JG, Bastos A, Friedlingstein P, Sitch S, Piao SL, Janssens IA, Peñuelas J. 2019. Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO2 and temperature, Nature Climate Change, 9: 73-79, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0367-7 | Pre-print. An edited version of this paper was published by Springer Nature Publishing AG. Copyright 2018 Springer Nature Publishing AG | Abstract
- Haverd V, Smith B, Nieradzik L, Briggs PR, Woodgate W, Trudinger, CM, Canadell JG. 2017. A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4546), incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of electron transport and carboxylation capacity-limited photosynthesis. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-33. doi: 10.5194/gmd-2017-265 | Full paper
- Jackson RB, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Korsbakken JI, Liu Z, Peters GP, Roy J, Wu L, 2018, Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonisation, Environmental Research Letters, 13, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf303 | Full paper
- Jackson RB, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Peters GP, Roy J, Wu L. 2017. Warning signs for stabilizing global CO2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters 12. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9662 | Full paper
- Jackson RB, Solomon EI, Canadell JG, Cargnello M, Field CB. 2019. Methane removal and atmospheric restoration. Nature Sustainability, 2, 436–438 | Full paper
- Keenan TF, Prentice IC, Canadell JG, Williams CA, Wang H, Raupach M, Collatz GJ. 2016. Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature Communications, 7, 13428, doi:10.1038/ncomms13428 | Full paper
- Kim et al. 2018. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-37, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2018-115 | Full paper
- Le Quéré C, et al. 2016. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 8, 605–649, doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 | Full paper
- Le Quéré C, et al. 2017. Global carbon budget 2017. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 10, 405-448, doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018 | Full paper
- Le Quere et al. 2018. Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 10, 2141-2194 doi: 10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 | Full paper
- Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Fuss S, Jackson RB, Korsbakken JI, Le Quéré C, Nakicenovic N. 2017. Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change, 7, 118–122, doi:10.1038/nclimate3202 | Full paper
- Peters GP, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P, Ilyina T, Jackson RB, Joos F, Korsbakken JI, McKinley GA, Stich S, Tans, P. 2017. Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions, Nature Climate Change, 7, 848-850, doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9 | Full paper
- Poulter B, et al. 2017. Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics. Environmental Research Letters, 12(9), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8391 | Full paper
- Pugh TAM, Lindeskog M, Smith B, Poulter B, Arneth A, Haverd V, Calle L. 2019. Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 4382-4387, doi:10.1073/pnas.1810512116 | Full paper
- Saunois M, et al. 2016. The global methane budget 2000–2012. Earth System Science Data, 8, 697–751, doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 | Full paper
- Saunois M, et al. 2016. The growing role of methane in anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 120207, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120207 | Full paper
- Saunois M, et al. 2017. Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 11135-11161, doi:10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017 | Full paper
- Trudinger C, Haverd V, Canadell P, Briggs P, Smith B. 2018. Model-data fusion framework to assess the vulnerability of Australian carbon stocks and water resources, EGU General Assembly 2018. Geophysical Research Abstracts | Abstract
- Zhang XZ, Peng SS, Wang YP, Silver JD, Piao SL, Rayner PJ. 2019. Greenhouse gas concentration and volcanic eruption dominated the variability of terrestrial carbon fluxes uptake over the last millennium. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi: 10.1029/2018MS001566 | Full paper
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenge:
Research in this project will assess the potential of land-based carbon sequestration and its vulnerability under future climates. It will also track Australian and global carbon budgets. This work will monitor carbon budgets against agreed global targets, and support the Australian Government in achieving its mitigation targets.