PROJECT 2.9: Risk assessment of future carbon sources and sinks
Policy makers need information on carbon and greenhouse gases so they can develop successful national policies and international engagement to achieve climate mitigation targets. They also need robust evidence to help identify effective carbon mitigation options. Revegetation is a potentially low-cost option, but we don’t know how climate change will affect uptake and availability of nutrients and water, and how this will affect plant growth (and so potential to store carbon).
We’re developing models that we will use to assess the potential of revegetation and conservation activities in Australia to remove carbon from the atmosphere. We’re also looking at how vulnerable the mitigation potential is to climate change.
This research will help determine the potential for land-based mitigation options in Australia, which will inform both Australia’s climate change and greenhouse gas policies, and growing carbon markets. This work will also produce national and global carbon budget data products that show how carbon dioxide and methane levels are tracking on the pathways needed for global climate stabilisation by the end of the 21st century.
This project supports Australia’s involvement in the Global Carbon Project.
For more information
Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenge:
Research in this project will assess the potential of land-based carbon sequestration and its vulnerability under future climates. It will also track Australian and global carbon budgets. This work will monitor carbon budgets against agreed global targets, and support the Australian Government in achieving its mitigation targets.
Publications and papers
- Cheng L, Zhang L, Wang Y-P, Canadell JG, Chiew FHS, Beringer J, Li L, Miralles DG, Piao S, Zhang Y. 2017. Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle. Nature Communications, 8, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00114-5
- Keenan TF, Prentice IC, Canadell JG, Williams CA, Wang H, Raupach M, Collatz GJ. 2016. Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature Communications, doi: doi:10.1038/ncomms13428
- Le Quéré C, et al. 2016. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data, 8, 605–649, doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016
- Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Fuss S, Jackson RB, Korsbakken JI, Le Quéré C, Nakicenovic N. 2017. Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change, 7, 118–122, doi:10.1038/nclimate3202
- Saunois M, et al. 2016. The global methane budget 2000–2012. Earth System Science Data, 8, 697–751, doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016
- Saunois M, Jackson RB, Bousquet P, Poulter B, Canadell JG. 2016. The growing role of methane in anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 120207, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120207
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