PROJECT 2.9: Risk assessment of future carbon sources and sinks
Policy makers need information on carbon and greenhouse gases so they can develop successful national policies and international engagement to achieve climate mitigation targets. They also need robust evidence to help identify effective carbon mitigation options. Revegetation is a potentially low-cost option, but we don’t know how climate change will affect uptake and availability of nutrients and water, and how this will affect plant growth (and so potential to store carbon).
We’re developing models that we will use to assess the potential of revegetation and conservation activities in Australia to remove carbon from the atmosphere. We’re also looking at how vulnerable the mitigation potential is to climate change.
This research will help determine the potential for land-based mitigation options in Australia, which will inform both Australia’s climate change and greenhouse gas policies, and growing carbon markets. This work will also produce national and global carbon budget data products that show how carbon dioxide and methane levels are tracking on the pathways needed for global climate stabilisation by the end of the 21st century.
This project supports Australia’s involvement in the Global Carbon Project.
For more information
Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenge:
Research in this project will assess the potential of land-based carbon sequestration and its vulnerability under future climates. It will also track Australian and global carbon budgets. This work will monitor carbon budgets against agreed global targets, and support the Australian Government in achieving its mitigation targets.
Publications and papers
- Bastos et al. 2018. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, doi: Full paper |
- Buermann et al. 2018. Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity. Nature 562, 110-114, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0555-7 | Abstract
- Cheng L, Zhang L, Wang Y-P, Canadell JG, Chiew FHS, Beringer J, Li L, Miralles DG, Piao S, Zhang Y. 2017. Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle, Nature Communications, 8, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00114-5 | Full paper
- Cuntz M, Haverd V. 2018. Physically Accurate Soil Freeze-Thaw Processes in a Global Land Surface Scheme. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10(1), 54-77, doi:10.1002/2017ms001100 | Full paper
- Dass P, Houlton BZ, Wang YP, Warlind D. 2018. Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California. Environmental Research Letters 13. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39 | Full paper
- Haverd V, Smith B, Nieradzik L, Briggs PR, Woodgate W, Trudinger, CM, Canadell JG. 2017. A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4546), incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of electron transport and carboxylation capacity-limited photosynthesis. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-33. doi: 10.5194/gmd-2017-265 | Full paper
- Jackson RB, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Peters GP, Roy J, Wu L. 2017. Warning signs for stabilizing global CO2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters 12. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9662 | Full paper
- Jackson RB, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Korsbakken JI, Liu Z, Peters GP, Roy J, Wu L, 2018, Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonisation, Environmental Research Letters, 13, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf303 | Full paper
- Keenan TF, Prentice IC, Canadell JG, Williams CA, Wang H, Raupach M, Collatz GJ. 2016. Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature Communications, 7, 13428, doi:10.1038/ncomms13428 | Full paper
- Kim et al. 2018. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-37, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2018-115 | Full paper
- Le Quéré C, et al. 2016. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 8, 605–649, doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 | Full paper
- Le Quéré C, et al. 2017. Global carbon budget 2017. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 10, 405-448, doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018 | Full paper
- Le Quere et al. 2018. Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 10, 2141-2194 doi: 10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 | Full paper
- Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Fuss S, Jackson RB, Korsbakken JI, Le Quéré C, Nakicenovic N. 2017. Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change, 7, 118–122, doi:10.1038/nclimate3202 | Abstract
- Poulter B, et al. 2017. Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics. Environmental Research Letters, 12(9), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8391 | Full paper
- Saunois M, et al. 2016. The global methane budget 2000–2012. Earth System Science Data, 8, 697–751, doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 | Full paper
- Saunois M, et al. 2016. The growing role of methane in anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 120207, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120207 | Full paper
- Saunois M, et al. 2017. Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 11135-11161, doi:10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017 | Full paper
- Trudinger C, Haverd V, Canadell P, Briggs P, Smith B. 2018. Model-data fusion framework to assess the vulnerability of Australian carbon stocks and water resources, EGU General Assembly 2018. Geophysical Research Abstracts | Abstract
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