The challenge
Limiting future global climate change requires substantial and sustained reductions in net greenhouse gases emissions.
We are still determining the best way to manage the carbon budget to reduce emissions, increase carbon sinks and protect existing carbon stocks, while managing feedbacks in the climate system.
How the ESCC Hub is meeting the challenge
Improving our understanding of past greenhouse gas emissions and predicting future changes will inform Australia’s emissions mitigation policy responses.
The following Hub activities are helping to meet this challenge.
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Record drop in carbon emissions in 2020, but sustained decreases required to stabilise climate
The Global Carbon Budget, released today, has found that global fossil CO2 emissions in 2020 are expected to decline by approximately 7% in 2020.
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Emissions of methane – a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide – are rising dangerously
Methane emissions have continued to rise over the past decade and are tracking concentrations consistent with the warmest IPCC scenario.
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Global emissions to hit 36.8 billion tonnes, beating last year’s record high
Global emissions for 2019 are predicted to hit 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), setting yet another all-time record. This disturbing result means emissions have grown by 62% since international climate negotiations began in 1990 to address the problem.
The figures are contained in the Global Carbon Project, which today released its 14th Global Carbon Budget.
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Developing an Australian carbon budget
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Understanding ocean change
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Natural habitats for coastal protection and carbon sequestration
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Applying Australia’s climate model
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Turning methane into carbon dioxide could help us fight climate change
Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas contributing to human-induced climate change. A new technique could restore methane concentrations to pre-industrial levels.
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Carbon emissions will reach 37 billion tonnes in 2018, a record high
06 December 2018 Pep Canadell, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen Peters, Robbie Andrew and Rob Jackson Pep Canadell is the Lead+
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International benchmarking of Australia’s climate model
We’ve updated Australia’s national climate model, the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), so it can participate in CMIP6 and therefore be used by national and international climate researchers.
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Understanding climate variability and extremes
We’ve analysed past climate variability and extremes to enhance our understanding of the underpinning climate drivers, and shed light on the extent to which these extreme events are influenced by human activities.
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Understanding ocean heat uptake
We’ve used data collected from ocean monitoring (historical archives, Argo floats and research vessels) to improve understanding of past changes in ocean temperature and salinity. We also used this data to identify sources of bias in ocean heat update efficiency in climate models, as well as to examine the connection between ocean salinity changes and water balance over Australia.
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Improving accessibility of regional climate projections
We’ve improved confidence in projections, particularly rainfall projections; run targeted workshops, presentations and training to better identify user needs and help stakeholders access climate change information; and produced more targeted projection products for stakeholders to use in decision-making.
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Assessing carbon sources and sinks
We’ve developed models that we have used to assess the potential of revegetation and conservation activities in Australia to remove carbon from the atmosphere. We have also produce national and global carbon budget data products and have supported Australia’s contribution to the Global Carbon Project.