PROJECT 2.8: Extreme weather projections
Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, bushfires, east coast lows and thunderstorms, incur significant economic, environmental and human costs. These events, and the costs associated with their impacts, are likely to change in a changing climate. Robust scientific information about the influence of climate change on these extreme events is essential for planning to improve the resilience and wellbeing of communities in the future.
We’re using observation data to examine historical extreme events and their causes, so we can better understand how, when and where extreme weather events occur. We’re also assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme weather events, and investigating the causes of projected future changes in extremes.
This will result in new projections of extreme weather events that will allow us to develop information and tools to enhance disaster risk reduction, emergency response, infrastructure design and operation, planning and policy making, and sustainable development.
For more information
Dr Andrew Dowdy, Bureau of Meteorology
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenges:
Our research will help lower operating and maintenance/replacement costs for infrastructure in the intermediate to long term, and reduce the risks to human health, property and the environment.
Our research will provide information and tools for use in decision making in relation to the influence of climate change on extreme weather events and their associated impacts on food security, ecosystems and natural resource management.
Publications and papers
- Chand SS, Tory KJ, Ye H, Walsh JE. 2017. Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific. Nature Climate Change, 7, 123–129, doi:10.1038/nclimate3181
- Dowdy A. 2017. Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1.
- Dowdy AJ, Catto JL. 2017. Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Scientific Reports, 7, doi:10.1038/srep40359
- Lavender SL, Dowdy AJ. 2016. Tropical cyclone track direction climatology and its intraseasonal variability in the Australian region. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres, 121(22), 13236–13249, doi:10.1002/2016JD025562
- Pepler AS, Di Luca A, Evans JP. 2017. Independently assessing the representation of midlatitude cyclones in high-resolution reanalyses using satellite observed winds. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5245
- Tory KJ, Ye H, Dare RA. 2017 Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3752-4