Publications

Cover of a technical report

ESCC Hub research builds on the long history of climate science carried out through the Australian Climate Change Science Programme. The ACCSP produced a range of publications and resources, including reports, information papers and multimedia resources.

Publications and resources from the ESCC Hub will be posted here as they are published.

 

About the Hub

Research Plans

Other information

Teleconnections

Teleconnections is our quarterly newsletter. Sign up to receive the next issue in your inbox, or browse through past issues.

Governance and Reporting

Our science

Brochures and fact sheets

Science impact stories

  • Sea-level rise information for councils – our researchers have prepared comprehensive sea-level projections for all coastal councils in Australia, making it easier for council planners and managers to know how sea-level rise will affect their council.
  • Characterising extreme fire conditions – our researchers have produced a dataset of weather conditions influencing fire activity extending back to the 1950s, providing the big picture with regards to fire weather in our changing climate.
  • Making coastal hazards information accessible – the Hub has re-developed a much used but old sea-level research website into a new portal that brings together information on an expanded range of coastal hazards including sea-level change, waves, coastal extremes and ocean energy.
  • Connecting young scientists and data users – the Hub has established a Young Professionals Network to support both early career climate science researchers and sector-based young professionals to develop technical capacity to deliver and apply climate change science.
  • Climate change information for local government – the Hub carried out a small case study to guide the development and delivery of climate change information for councils.

Hub reports

  • Rashid H, Zhu H and Sun Z. 2017. Initial documentation of key systematic errors in a high-resolution (60 km grid) version of the current ACCESS atmospheric model. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 1, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report | Non-technical summary [Project 2.5]
  • Harris T, Hope P, Oliver E, Smalley R, Arblaster J, Holbrook N, Duke N, Pearce K, Braganza K, Bindoff N. 2017. Climate drivers of the 2015 Gulf of Carpentaria mangrove dieback. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 2, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report | Summary [Project 2.2]
  • Zhu H, Jakob C, Ma Y, Warren R, Santra A, Yorgen S and Sun Z. 2018. A comprehensive report of model systematic errors in the latest ACCESS climate models. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 3, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report | Non-technical summary [Project 2.5]
  • NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. 2018. Climate change in the Torres Strait: implications for fisheries and marine ecosystems, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 4, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report [Activity 3.3]
  • NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. 2018. NextGen Climate Change Projections: Science ideas and issues for national climate projections in Australia, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 5, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report [Project 2.6].
  • NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. 2018. Climate challenges for water resources management in Western Australia: workshop summary, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No.6, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report [Project 2.6].
  • NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. 2018. Climate change and the Shark Bay World Heritage Area: foundations for a climate change adaptation strategy and action plan, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 7, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report | Summary

Other reports

Journal articles

2019

  • Colman RA, Brown JR, Franklin C, Hanson L, Ye H, Zelinka MD. 2019. Evaluating cloud feedbacks and rapid responses in the ACCESS model. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2018jd029189 | Full paper
  • Hope, Black, Lim, Dowdy, Wang, Pepler and Fawcett, 2019. On determining the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on the record fire weather in eastern Australia in February 2017, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0135.1 | Full paper
  • Kushnir et al. 2019. Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate, Nature Climate Change, 9, 94–101, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7 | Abstract
  • Konlechner TM, Kennedy DM, Cousens RD and Woods JL. 2019. Patterns of early-colonising species on eroding to prograding coasts; implications for foredune plant communities on retreating coastlines. Geomorphology, 327, 404-416, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.11.013 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by Elsevier Ltd. Copyright 2019 Elsevier Ltd | Abstract
  • McCarthy N, Guyot A, Dowdy A and McGowan H. 2019. Wildfire and Weather Radar: A Review, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, doi: 10.1029/2018JD029285 | Abstract
  • O’Kane T, et al. 2019. Coupled data assimilation and ensemble initialisation with application to multi-year ENSO prediction. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0189.1 | Abstract
  • Wang G, Hendon H, Arblaster J, Lim E, Abhik S and van Rensch P. 2019. Compounding Tropical and Stratospheric Forcing of the Record Low Antarctic Sea-Ice in 2016. Nature Communications, 10, doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-07689-7 | Full paper

2018

  • Bastos et al. 2018. Impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0304 | Full paper
  • Bates B, McCaw L,  Dowdy A, 2018. Exploratory analysis of lightning-ignited wildfires in the Warren Region, Western Australia, Journal of Environmental Management, doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.097 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by Elsevier Ltd. Copyright 2018 Elsevier Ltd | Abstract
  • Bell SS, Chand SS, Tory KJ, Turville C. 2018. Statistical assessment of the OWZ tropical cyclone tracking scheme in ERA‐Interim. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0548.1 | Full paper
  • Bell SS, Chand SS, Tory KJ, Dowdy AJ, Turville C, Ye H. 2018. Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models, Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Copyright 2018 Springer Berlin Heidelberg | Abstract
  • Buermann et al. 2018. Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity. Nature 562, 110-114, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0555-7 | Full paper
  • Cai WJ, Wang GJ, Dewitte B, Wu L, Santoso A, Takahashi K, Yang Y, Carreric A, McPhaden MJ, 2018. Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Nino under greenhouse warming, Nature, 564, 201-206, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0776-9 | Abstract
  • Cai W, Wang G, Gan B, Wu L, Santoso A, Lin X, Chen Z, Jia F, Yamagata T. 2018. Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming. Nature Communications, 9, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6 | Full paper
  • Cavicchia L, Dowdy A, Walsh K. 2018. Energetics and dynamics of subtropical Australian east coast cyclones: Two contrasting cases. Monthly Weather Review, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0316.1 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by American Meteorological Society. Copyright 2018 American Meteorological Society | Abstract
  • Colman R, Power SB. 2018. What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity? Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4113-7 | Full text
  • Crimp S, Nicholls N, Kokic P, Risbey JS, Gobbett D, Howden M. 2018. Synoptic to large-scale drivers of minimum temperature variability in Australia – long-term changes. International Journal of Climatology, 38, E237-E254. doi:10.1002/joc.5365 | Abstract
  • Cuntz M, Haverd V. 2018. Physically Accurate Soil Freeze-Thaw Processes in a Global Land Surface Scheme. Journal  of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10(1), 54-77, doi:10.1002/2017ms001100 | Full paper
  • Dass P, Houlton BZ, Wang YP, Warlind D. 2018. Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California. Environmental Research Letters, 13. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb39 | Full paper
  • Dowdy AJ, Pepler A, 2018. Pyroconvection Risk in Australia: Climatological Changes in Atmospheric Stability and Surface Fire Weather Conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2017GL076654 | Abstract
  • Dowdy A, Pepler P, Ashcroft L, Jones D, Braganza K, Bettio L. 2018. Climate Change Impacts on Natural Hazards, Proceedings of AFAC 2018 Conference, Perth, WA | Full report
  • Ekström M, Gutmann ED, Wilby RL, Tye MR, Kirono DGC. 2018. Robustness of hydroclimate metrics for climate change impact research. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, doi:10.1002/wat2.1288 | Full paper
  • Fiddes SL, Woodhouse MT, Nicholls Z, Lane TP, Schofield R. 2018. Cloud, precipitation and radiation responses to large perturbations in global dimethyl sulfide. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18, 10177-10198. doi: 10.5194/acp-18-10177-2018 | Full paper
  • Grose MR, Colman RA, Andrews T. 2018. What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections? Geophysical Research Letters. 45(3), 1559-1566, doi:10.1002/2017gl075742 | Full paper
  • Hobday AJ, Oliver ECJ, Sen Gupta A, Benthuysen JA, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Holbrook NJ, Moore PJ, Thomsen MS, Wernberg T and Smale DA. 2018. Categorizing and naming marine heatwaves. Oceanography. doi:10.5670/oceanog.2018.205 | Full text
  • Kim et al. 2018. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-37, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2018-115 | Full paper
  • Lavender SL, Hoeke RK, Abbs DJ. 2018. The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18, 795-805, doi:10.5194/nhess-18-795-2018 | Full paper
  • Lavender SL, Walsh KJE, Caron L-P, King M, Monkiewicz S, Guishard M, Zhang Q, Hunt B. 2018. Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models. Sci. Adv. 4, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat6509 | Full paper
  • Le Quéré C, et al. 2018. Global Carbon Budget 2018. Earth System Science Data, 10, 1-54, 2018, doi: 10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 | Full Report
  • Le Quéré C, et al. 2018. Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 10, 405-448, doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018 | Full paper
  • Marshall AG, Hemer MA, Hendon HH, McInnes KL. 2018. Southern annular mode impacts on global ocean surface waves. Ocean Modelling, 129, 58-74. doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.007 | Full paper
  • Morris RL, Konlechner TM, Ghisalberti M, Swearer SE. 2018. From grey to green: Efficacy of eco-engineering solutions for nature-based coastal defence. Global Change Biology, 1-16, doi: 10.1111/gcb.14063 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. | Abstract
  • Oliver ECJ, Donat MG, Burrows MT, Moore PJ, Smale DA, Alexander LV, Benthuysen JA, Feng M, Sen Gupta A, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Scannell HA, Straub SC, Wernberg T. 2018. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature Communications, 9, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ & Holbrook NJ. 2018. Variability and Long-Term Trends in the Shelf Circulation Off Eastern Tasmania. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. doi:10.1029/2018JC013994 | Abstract
  • Oliver ECJ, Lago V, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Ling SD, Mundy CN. 2018. Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability. Progress in Oceanography, 161, 116-130, doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2018.02.007 | Abstract
  • Pepler AS, Dowdy AJ, Hope P. 2018. A global climatology of surface anticyclones, their variability, associated drivers and long-term trends, Climate Dynamics, doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4451-5 | Abstract
  • Pepler AS, & Hope P. 2018. Orography Drives the Semistationary West Australian Summer Trough, Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079312 | Full paper
  • Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, King AD, Cougnon EA, Grose MR, Oliver ECJ, Holbrook NJ, Lewis SC, Pourasghar F. 2018. The role of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change in the 2017/18 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0116.1 | Full paper
  • Power SB and Delage FPD. 2018a. El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climatic Conditions around the World during the Latter Half of the Twenty-First Century. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0138.1 | Full paper
  • Palmer MD, Boyer T, Cowley R, Kizu S, Reseghetti F, Suzuki T, Thresher, A. 2018. An Algorithm for Classifying Unknown Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) Instruments Based on Existing Metadata. Journal of Atmospheric Oceanic Technology, 35, 429–440. doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-17-0129.1 | Full text
  • Sharmila, S. and K.J.E. Walsh. 2018. Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation and its link to tropical expansion. Nature Climate Change, 8, 730-736, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5 | Pre-print version
  • Ramsay HA, Chand SS, Camargo SJ. 2018. A statistical assessment of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone tracks in climate models, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0377.1 | Pre-print version
  • Rintoul SR, 2018. The global influence of localized dynamics in the Southern Ocean, Nature, 558, 209-218, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0182-3 | Abstract
  • Rintoul SR, Chown SL, DeConto RM, England MH, Fricker HA, Masson-Delmotte V, Naish TR, Siegert MJ, Xavier JC. 2018. Choosing the future of Antarctica. Nature, 558, 233-241, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0173-4 | Abstract
  • Risbey JS, O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Franzke CLE, Horenko I. 2018. On the Dynamics of Austral Heat Waves. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres, 123(1), 38-57, doi: 10.1002/2017jd027222 | Full paper
  • Santoso A, Hendon H, Watkins A, Power S, Dommenget D, England M, Frankcombe L, Holbrook N, Holmes R, Hope, P Lim, E-P, Luo J-J, McGregor S, Neske S, Nguyen H, Pepler A, Rashid H, Sen Gupta A, Taschetto AS, Wang G, Abellán E, Sullivan A, Huguenin M, Gamble F, Delage F. 2018. Dynamics and predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: An Australian perspective on progress and challenges. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0057.1 | Full paper
  • Silvano A, Rintoul SR , Peña-Molino B, Hobbs WR, Aoki S, Orsi AH and Williams GD. 2018. Freshening by glacial meltwater enhances melting of ice shelves and reduces formation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Science Advances, Vol. 4, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aap9467 | Full paper
  • Snow K, Rintoul SR, Sloyan BM & Hogg AM. 2018. Change in Dense Shelf Water and Adelie Land Bottom Water precipitated by iceberg calving. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2380-2387, doi:10.1002/2017gl076195 | Abstract
  • Timmermann A, An S, Kug J, Jin F, Cai W, Capotondi A, Cobb K, Lengaigne M, McPhaden MJ, Stuecker MF, Stein K, Wittenberg AT, Yun K, Bayr T, Chen H, Chikamoto Y, Dewitte B, Dommenget D, Grothe P, Guilyardi E, Ham Y, Hayashi M, Ineson S, Kang D, Kim S, Kim W, Lee J, Li T, Luo J, McGregor S, Planton Y, Power SB, Rashid H, Ren H, Santoso A, Takahashi K, Todd A, Wang GM, Wang GJ, Xie R, Yang H, Yeh S, Yoon J, Zeller E, Zhang X. 2018. El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity. Nature, 559, 535-545, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6 | Abstract
  • Trudinger C, Haverd V, Canadell P, Briggs P, Smith B. 2018. Model-data fusion framework to assess the vulnerability of Australian carbon stocks and water resources, EGU General Assembly 2018. Geophysical Research Abstracts | Abstract
  • von Storch H, Cavicchia L, Feser F, Li D. 2018. The Concept of Large‐Scale Conditioning of Climate Model Simulations of Atmospheric Coastal Dynamics: Current State and Perspectives. Atmosphere 9, 337, doi:10.3390/atmos9090337 | Full paper
  • Wu Q, Zhang X, Church JA, Hu J. 2018. ENSO-related Global Ocean Heat Content Variations, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0861.1 | Abstract
  • Wu W, McInnes KL, O’Grady J, Hoeke RK, Leonard M, Westra S. 2018. Mapping dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2017JC013472 | Full paper
  • Zhang Y, Feng M, Du Y, Phillips HE, Bindoff NL, McPhaden MJ. 2018. Strengthened Indonesian throughflow drives decadal warming in the Southern Indian Ocean. Geographical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078265 | Abstract

2017

  • Aoki S, Kobayashi R, Rintoul SR, Tamura T, Kusahara K. 2017. Changes in water properties and flow regime on the continental shelf off the Adélie/George VLand coast, East Antarctica, after glacier tongue calving, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122, 6277-6294, doi:10.1002/2017jc012925 | Abstract
  • Abellán E, McGregor S, England M, Santoso A. 2017. Distinctive role of ocean advection anomalies in the development of the extreme 2015-16 El Nino. Climate Dynamics, 1-18, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-4007-0 | Full text
  • Bates B, Dowdy AJ, Chandler R, 2017. Lightning Prediction for Australia Using Multivariate Analyses of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 525-534, doi: 10.1175/jamc-d-17-0214.1 | Abstract
  • Brown JR, Moise AF, Colman RA. 2017. Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5683–5690, doi:10.1002/2017GL073217 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Cai WJ, Wang GJ, Santoso A, Lin XP, Wu LX. 2017. Definition of Extreme El Nino and Its Impact on Projected Increase in Extreme El Nino Frequency. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11184-11190, doi: 10.1002/2017gl075635 | Full paper
  • Chen X, Zhang X, Church JA, King MA, Watson CS, Monselesan D, Legresy B, Harig C. 2017. The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3325 | Pre-print version | Abstract
  • Cheng L, Zhang L, Wang Y-P, Canadell JG, Chiew FHS, Beringer J, Li L, Miralles DG, Piao S, Zhang Y. 2017. Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle, Nature Communications, 8, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00114-5 | Full paper
  • Chiew FHS, Zheng H, Potter NJ, Ekstrom M, Grose MR, Kirono DGC, Zhang L, Vaze J. 2017.  Future runoff projections for Australia and science challenges in producing next generation projections. Proceedings of the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, December 2017, pp. 1745–1751 | Conference proceedings
  • Chung C, Power SB. 2017. The non-linear impact of El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 67(1), 25–45, doi:10.22499/3.6701.003 | Full paper
  • Chung C and Power S. 2017. Multi-year variability in the Tasman sea and impacts on Southern Hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0862.1 | Full paper
  • Cougnon EA, Galton-Fenzi BK, Rintoul SR, Legresy B, Williams GD, Fraser AD, Hunter JR, 2017. Regional Changes in Icescape Impact Shelf Circulation and Basal Melting. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11, 519–11, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074943 | Full paper
  • Dowdy A. 2017. Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1 | Full paper
  • Dowdy AJ, Catto JL. 2017. Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Scientific Reports, 7, 40359, doi:10.1038/srep40359 | Full paper
  • Dowdy AJ, Fromm MD, McCarthy N. 2017. Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black Saturday in southeast Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres. 122(14), 7342-7354, doi: 10.1002/2017JD026577 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Dowdy A, Ye H, Tory K, Jones D, Evans A, Lavender S, Thatcher M, Rafter T, Osbrough S, Walsh K, Cavicchia L, Evans J, Catto J. 2017. Extreme weather: improved data Extreme weather: improved data products on bushfires, thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and east coast lows. In: Rumsewicz, I.M. (Ed.), Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC conference. Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Sydney, | Full paper
  • Grose MR, Black M, Risbey JS, Uhe P, Hope PK, Haustein K, Mitchell D. 2017. Severe frosts in Western Australia in September 2016. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/bams-D-17-0088.1 | Full paper
  • Haverd V, Smith B, Nieradzik L, Briggs PR, Woodgate W, Trudinger, CM, Canadell JG. 2017. A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4546), incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of electron transport and carboxylation capacity-limited photosynthesis. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-33, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2017-265 | Full paper
  • Herold N, Santoso A. 2017. Indian Ocean warming during peak El Nino cools surrounding land masses. Climate Dynamics, 1-16, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4001-6 |  Full paper
  • Hope P, Lim E-P, Hendon H, Wang G. 2017. The effects of increasing CO2 on the extreme September 2016 rainfall across South Eastern Australia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0094.1 | Full paper
  • Jackson RB, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Peters GP, Roy J, Wu L. 2017. Warning signs for stabilizing global CO2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters 12, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9662 | Full paper
  • Kennedy DM, Konlechner T, Zavadil E, Mariani M, Wong V, Ierodiaconou D, Macreadie P. 2017. Invasive cordgrass (Spartina spp.) in south-eastern Australia induces island formation, salt marsh development, and carbon storage. Geographical Research, 56(1), 80-91, doi: 10.1111/1745-5871.12265 | Full paper
  • Kirono DGC, Grose MR, Hennessy KJ. 2017. Increasing risk of months with low rainfall and high temperature in southeast Australia for the past 150 years. Climate Risk Management, 16, 10–21, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2017.04.001 | Full paper
  • Langlais C, Lenton A, Matear R, Monselesan D, Legresy B, Cougnon E, Rintoul SR. 2017. Stationary Rossby waves dominate subduction of anthropogenic carbon in the Southern Ocean. Stationary Rossby waves dominate subduction of anthropogenic carbon in the Southern Ocean. Scientific Reports, 7, 17076,  doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17292-3 | Full paper
  • Le Cozannet G, Nicholls RJ, Hinkel J, Sweet WV, McInnes KL, Van de Wal RSW, Slangen ABA, Lowe JA, White KD. 2017. Sea level change and coastal climate services: the way forward. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 5(4), 49, doi:10.3390/jmse5040049 | Full paper
  • Luhar AK, Galbally IE, Woodhouse MT, Thatcher M. 2017. An improved parameterisation of ozone dry deposition to the ocean and its impact in a global climate-chemistry model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 3749-3767, doi: 10.5194/acp-17-3749-2017 | Full paper
  • Lyu K, Zhang X, Church JA, Hu J, Yu J-Y.  2017 Distinguishing basin-scale modes of the quasi-decadal and multi-decadal sea level variations in the Pacific, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0004.1 | Full paper
  • McCarthy N, Guyot A, Dowdy A. 2017. The Use of Spectrum Width Radar Data for Bushfire Model Verification. Proceedings of the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, December 2017, pp. 1131-1137 | Conference proceedings
  • McCarthy N, McGowan H, Guyot A, Dowdy A. 2017. Mobile X-Pol radar: A new tool for investigating pyroconvection and associated wildfire meteorology. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/bams-d-16-0118.1 | Full text
  • Nguyen H, Protat A, Zhu HY, Whimpey M. 2017. Sensitivity of the ACCESS forecast model statistical rainfall properties to resolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 1967-1977, doi: 10.1002/qj.3056 | Abstract
  • O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS, Horenko I, Franzke CLE. 2017. On memory, dimension, and atmospheric teleconnections. Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting, 3(1), 1–27, doi:10.1515/mcwf-2017-0001 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ, Benthuysen JA, Bindoff NL, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Mundy CN, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE. 2017. The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms16101 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Holbrook NJ, Bindoff NL. 2017. Anthropogenic and natural influences on record 2016 marine heatwaves. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0093.1 | Full paper
  • Pepler AS, Di Luca A, Evans JP. 2017. Independently assessing the representation of midlatitude cyclones in high-resolution reanalyses using satellite observed winds. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5245 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Fuss S, Jackson RB, Korsbakken JI, Le Quéré C, Nakicenovic N. 2017. Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change, 7, 118–122, doi:10.1038/nclimate3202 | Full paper
  • Peters GP, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P, Ilyina T, Jackson RB, Joos F, Korsbakken JI, McKinley GA, Stich S, Tans, P. 2017. Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions, Nature Climate Change, 7, 848-850, doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9 | Full paper
  • Poulter B, et al. 2017. Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics. Environmental Research Letters, 12(9), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8391 | Full paper
  • Power SB, Delage FPD, Chung CTY, Ye H and Murphy BF. 2017. Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall. Nature Communications, 8, 14368, doi:10.1038/ncomms14368 | Full paper
  • Power SB, Delage FPD, Wang GM, Smith I, Kociuba G. 2017. Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections. Climate Dynamics, 49, 53-69, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3326-x | Full paper
  • Risbey JS, Grose MR, Monselesan DP, O’Kane TJ, Lewandowsky S. 2017. Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation. Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2017.11.002 | Full paper
  • Santoso A, McPhaden MJ, Cai W. 2017. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(4), 1079-1129, doi:10.1002/2017rg000560 | Full paper
  • Saunois M, et al. 2017.  Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 11135-11161, doi:10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017 | Full paper
  • Silvano A, Rintoul SR, Peña-Molino B, Williams GD. 2017. Distribution of water masses and glacial meltwater on the continental shelf near the Totten Glacier. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, 122, 2050–2068, doi:10.1002/2016JC012115 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Tory KJ, Ye H, Dare RA. 2017. Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3752-4 | Full text
  • Wang G, Cai W, Gan B, Wu L, Santoso A, Lin X, Chen Z, McPhaden MJ. 2017. Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5°C warming stabilisation. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3351 | Abstract
  • Wang G, Cai W, Santoso A. 2017. Assessing the impact of model biases on projected increase in frequency of extrme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0509.1 | Full paper
  • Wheeler MC, Zhu HY, Sobel AH, Hudson D, Vitart F. 2017. Seamless precipitation prediction skill comparison between two global models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 374-383, doi:10.1002/qj.2928 | Abstract
  • Wu Q, Zhang X, Church JA, Hu J. 2017 Changes and variability of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific during the altimeter era, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/2016JC012345 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Zhang H, Zhao Y, Moise A, Ye H, Colman R, Roff G, Zhao M. 2017. On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study. Climate Dynamics, 1-19,  doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3690-1 | Full paper
  • Zhang X, Church JA, Monselesan D, McInnes KL. 2017. High Resolution Sea Level Projections for Australian Coasts in the 21st Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL074176 | Full paper
  • Zhou XB, Alves O, Marsland SJ, Bi DH, Hirst AC. 2017. Multi-decadal variations of the South Indian Ocean subsurface temperature influenced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 69, doi:10.1080/16000870.2017.1308055 | Full paper
  • Zhu HY, Maloney E, Hendon H, Stratton R. 2017. Effects of the changing heating profile associated with melting layers in a climate model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 3110-3121, doi:10.1002/qj.3166 | Abstract

2016

  • Chand SS, Tory KJ, Ye H, Walsh KJE. 2016. Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific. Nature Climate Change, 7, 123–129, doi:10.1038/nclimate3181 | Full text
  • Griffies SM et al. 2016. OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3231–3296, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016 | Full paper
  • Grose MR, Risbey JS, Whetton PH. 2016. Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’. Climatic Change, 140, 307–322, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1840-9 | Abstract
  • Hope P, Wang G, Lim E-P, Hendon HH, Arblaster JM. 2016. What caused the record-breaking heat across Australia in October 2015? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S122–S126, doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0141.1 | Full paper
  • Karoly D, Black M, Grose M, King A. 2016. The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S127–S130, doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0139.1 | Full paper
  • Keenan TF, Prentice IC, Canadell JG, Williams CA, Wang H, Raupach M, Collatz GJ. 2016. Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature Communications, 7, 13428, doi:10.1038/ncomms13428 | Full paper
  • Lago V, Wijffels SE, Durack PJ, Church JA, Bindoff NL, Marsland SJ. 2016. Simulating the Role of Surface Forcing on Observed Multidecadal Upper-Ocean Salinity Changes, Journal of Climate, 29, 5575-5588, doi: 10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0519.1 | Full paper
  • Lavender SL, Dowdy AJ. 2016. Tropical cyclone track direction climatology and its intraseasonal variability in the Australian region. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres, 121(22), 13236–13249, doi:10.1002/2016JD025562 | Full paper
  • Le Quéré C, et al. 2016. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 8, 605–649, doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 | Full paper
  • Ng B, Cai WJ, 2016. Present-day zonal wind influences projected Indian Ocean Dipole skewness, Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 21, 11392-11399, doi: 10.1002/2016GL071208 | Full text
  • O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS. 2016. A multiscale re-examination of the Pacific South American pattern. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 379–402, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0291.1 | Full paper
  • Rashid HAH, Hirst AC. 2016. Mechanisms of improved rainfall simulation over the Maritime Continent due to increased horizontal resolution in an AGCM. Climate Dynamics, 49, 1747–1764, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3413-z | Full paper
  • Saunois M, et al. 2016. The global methane budget 2000–2012. Earth System Science Data, 8, 697–751, doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 | Full paper
  • Saunois M, et al. 2016. The growing role of methane in anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 120207, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120207 | Full paper

Books and book chapters

  • Franzke CLE, O’Kane TJ (Eds), 2017. Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, 468 pp. | Visit publisher