Publications

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ESCC Hub research builds on the long history of climate science carried out through the Australian Climate Change Science Programme. The ACCSP produced a range of publications and resources, including reports, information papers and multimedia resources.

Publications and resources from the ESCC Hub will be posted here as they are published.

 

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Our science

Brochures and fact sheets

Hub technical reports

  • Harris T, Hope P, Oliver E, Smalley R, Arblaster J, Holbrook N, Duke N, Pearce K, Braganza K, Bindoff N. 2017. Climate drivers of the 2015 Gulf of Carpentaria mangrove dieback. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Technical Report No. 2, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report | Summary [Project 2.2]
  • Rashid H, Zhu H and Sun Z. 2017. Initial documentation of key systematic errors in a high-resolution (60 km grid) version of the current ACCESS atmospheric model. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Technical Report No. 1, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report | Non-technical summary [Project 2.5]

Other reports

Journal articles

  • Abellán E, McGregor S, England M, Santoso A. 2017. Distinctive role of ocean advection anomalies in the development of the extreme 2015-16 El Nino. Climate Dynamics, 1-18, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-4007-0 | Abstract
  • Bates B, Dowdy AJ, Chandler R, 2017. Lightning Prediction for Australia Using Multivariate Analyses of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variables, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 525-534, doi: 10.1175/jamc-d-17-0214.1 | Abstract
  • Brown JR, Moise AF, Colman RA. 2017. Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5683–5690, doi:10.1002/2017GL073217 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Cai W, Wang G, Gan B, Wu L, Santoso A, Lin X, Chen Z, Jia F, Yamagata T. 2018. Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming. Nature Communications, 9, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6 | Full paper
  • Cavicchia L, Dowdy A, Walsh K. 2018. Energetics and dynamics of subtropical Australian east coast cyclones: Two contrasting cases. Monthly Weather Review, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0316.1 | Abstract
  • Chand SS, Tory KJ, Ye H, Walsh KJE. 2017. Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific. Nature Climate Change, 7, 123–129, doi:10.1038/nclimate3181 | Abstract
  • Chen X, Zhang X, Church JA, King MA, Watson CS, Monselesan D, Legresy B, Harig C. 2017. The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3325 | Pre-print version | Abstract
  • Cheng L, Zhang L, Wang Y-P, Canadell JG, Chiew FHS, Beringer J, Li L, Miralles DG, Piao S, Zhang Y. 2017. Recent increases in terrestrial carbon uptake at little cost to the water cycle, Nature Communications, 8, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00114-5 | Full paper
  • Chiew FHS, Zheng H, Potter NJ, Ekstrom M, Grose MR, Kirono DGC, Zhang L, Vaze J. 2017.  Future runoff projections for Australia and science challenges in producing next generation projections. Proceedings of the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, December 2017, pp. 1745–1751 | Conference proceedings
  • Chung C, Power SB. 2017. The non-linear impact of El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 67(1), 25–45, doi:10.22499/3.6701.003 | Full paper
  • Chung C, Power S, Santoso A, Wang G. 2017. Multi-year variability in the Tasman sea and impacts on Southern Hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0862.1 | Abstract
  • Cougnon EA, Galton-Fenzi BK, Rintoul SR, Legresy B, Williams GD, Fraser AD, Hunter JR, 2017. Regional Changes in Icescape Impact Shelf Circulation and Basal Melting. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11, 519–11, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074943 | Full paper
  • Cuntz M, Haverd V. 2018. Physically Accurate Soil Freeze-Thaw Processes in a Global Land Surface Scheme. Journal  of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10(1), 54-77, doi:10.1002/2017ms001100 | Full paper
  • Dowdy A. 2017. Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1 | Abstract
  • Dowdy AJ, Catto JL. 2017. Extreme weather caused by concurrent cyclone, front and thunderstorm occurrences. Scientific Reports, 7, 40359, doi:10.1038/srep40359 | Full paper
  • Dowdy AJ, Fromm MD, McCarthy N. 2017. Pyrocumulonimbus lightning and fire ignition on Black Saturday in southeast Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres. 122(14), 7342-7354, doi: 10.1002/2017JD026577 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Dowdy AJ, Pepler A. 2018. Pyroconvection Risk in Australia: Climatological Changes in Atmospheric Stability and Surface Fire Weather Conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2017GL076654 | Abstract
  • Dowdy A, Ye H, Tory K, Jones D, Evans A, Lavender S, Thatcher M, Rafter T, Osbrough S, Walsh K, Cavicchia L, Evans J, Catto J. 2017. Extreme weather: improved data Extreme weather: improved data products on bushfires, thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and east coast lows. In: Rumsewicz, I.M. (Ed.), Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC conference. Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Sydney, | Full paper
  • Ekström M, Gutmann ED, Wilby RL, Tye MR, Kirono DGC. 2018. Robustness of hydroclimate metrics for climate change impact research. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, doi:10.1002/wat2.1288 | Full paper
  • Griffies SM et al. 2016. OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3231–3296, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016 | Full paper
  • Grose MR, Black M, Risbey JS, Uhe P, Hope PK, Haustein K, Mitchell D. 2017. Severe frosts in Western Australia in September 2016. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/bams-D-17-0088.1 | Full paper
  • Grose MR, Colman RA, Andrews T. 2018. What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections? Geophysical Research Letters. 45(3), 1559-1566, doi:10.1002/2017gl075742 | Abstract
  • Grose MR, Risbey JS, Whetton PH. 2016. Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’. Climatic Change, 140, 307–322, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1840-9 | Abstract
  • Haverd V, Smith B, Nieradzik L, Briggs PR, Woodgate W, Trudinger, CM, Canadell JG. 2017. A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4546), incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of electron transport and carboxylation capacity-limited photosynthesis. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 1-33, doi: 10.5194/gmd-2017-265 | Full paper
  • Herold N, Santoso A. 2017. Indian Ocean warming during peak El Nino cools surrounding land masses. Climate Dynamics, 1-16, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4001-6 |  Full paper
  • Hope P, Lim E-P, Hendon H, Wang G. 2017. The effects of increasing CO2 on the extreme September 2016 rainfall across South Eastern Australia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0094.1 | Full paper
  • Hope P, Wang G, Lim E-P, Hendon HH, Arblaster JM. 2016. What caused the record-breaking heat across Australia in October 2015? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S122–S126, doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0141.1 | Full paper
  • Jackson RB, Le Quéré C, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Peters GP, Roy J, Wu L. 2017. Warning signs for stabilizing global CO2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters 12, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9662 | Full paper
  • Karoly D, Black M, Grose M, King A. 2016. The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S127–S130, doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0139.1 | Full paper
  • Keenan TF, Prentice IC, Canadell JG, Williams CA, Wang H, Raupach M, Collatz GJ. 2016. Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature Communications, 7, 13428, doi:10.1038/ncomms13428 | Full paper
  • Kennedy DM, Konlechner T, Zavadil E, Mariani M, Wong V, Ierodiaconou D, Macreadie P. 2017. Invasive cordgrass (Spartina spp.) in south-eastern Australia induces island formation, salt marsh development, and carbon storage. Geographical Research, 56(1), 80-91, doi: 10.1111/1745-5871.12265 | Full paper
  • Kirono DGC, Grose MR, Hennessy KJ. 2017. Increasing risk of months with low rainfall and high temperature in southeast Australia for the past 150 years. Climate Risk Management, 16, 10–21, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2017.04.001 | Full paper
  • Langlais C, Lenton A, Matear R, Monselesan D, Legresy B, Cougnon E, Rintoul SR. 2017. Stationary Rossby waves dominate subduction of anthropogenic carbon in the Southern Ocean. Stationary Rossby waves dominate subduction of anthropogenic carbon in the Southern Ocean. Scientific Reports, 7, 17076,  doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17292-3 | Full paper
  • Lavender SL, Dowdy AJ. 2016. Tropical cyclone track direction climatology and its intraseasonal variability in the Australian region. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres, 121(22), 13236–13249, doi:10.1002/2016JD025562 | Abstract
  • Lavender SL, Hoeke RK, Abbs DJ. 2018. The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18, 795-805, doi:10.5194/nhess-18-795-2018 | Full paper
  • Le Cozannet G, Nicholls RJ, Hinkel J, Sweet WV, McInnes KL, Van de Wal RSW, Slangen ABA, Lowe JA, White KD. 2017. Sea level change and coastal climate services: the way forward. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 5(4), 49, doi:10.3390/jmse5040049 | Full paper
  • Le Quéré C, et al. 2016. Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 8, 605–649, doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 | Full paper
  • Le Quéré C, et al. 2017. Global carbon budget 2017. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 10, 405-448, doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018 | Full paper
  • Lyu K, Zhang X, Church JA, Hu J, Yu J-Y.  2017 Distinguishing basin-scale modes of the quasi-decadal and multi-decadal sea level variations in the Pacific, Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0004.1 | Full paper
  • McCarthy N, Guyot A, Dowdy A. 2017. The Use of Spectrum Width Radar Data for Bushfire Model Verification. Proceedings of the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, December 2017, pp. 1131-1137 | Conference proceedings
  • McCarthy N, McGowan H, Guyot A, Dowdy A. 2017. Mobile X-Pol radar: A new tool for investigating pyroconvection and associated wildfire meteorology. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/bams-d-16-0118.1 | Full text
  • Morris RL, Konlechner TM, Ghisalberti M, Swearer SE. 2018. From grey to green: Efficacy of eco-engineering solutions for nature-based coastal defence. Global Change Biology, 1-16, doi: 10.1111/gcb.14063 | Abstract
  • O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS. 2016. A multiscale re-examination of the Pacific South American pattern. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 379–402, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0291.1 | Full paper
  • O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS, Horenko I, Franzke CLE. 2017. On memory, dimension, and atmospheric teleconnections. Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting, 3(1), 1–27, doi:10.1515/mcwf-2017-0001 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ, Benthuysen JA, Bindoff NL, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Mundy CN, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE. 2017. The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms16101 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ, Donat MG, Burrows MT, Moore PJ, Smale DA, Alexander LV, Benthuysen JA, Feng M, Sen Gupta A, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Scannell HA, Straub SC, Wernberg T. 2018. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature Communications, 9, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ, Lago V, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Ling SD, Mundy CN. 2018. Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability. Progress in Oceanography 161, 116-130, doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2018.02.007 | Abstract
  • Oliver ECJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Holbrook NJ, Bindoff NL. 2017. Anthropogenic and natural influences on record 2016 marine heatwaves. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0093.1 | Full paper
  • Pepler AS, Di Luca A, Evans JP. 2017. Independently assessing the representation of midlatitude cyclones in high-resolution reanalyses using satellite observed winds. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5245 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Peters GP, Andrew RM, Canadell JG, Fuss S, Jackson RB, Korsbakken JI, Le Quéré C, Nakicenovic N. 2017. Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change, 7, 118–122, doi:10.1038/nclimate3202 | Abstract
  • Poulter B, et al. 2017. Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics. Environmental Research Letters, 12(9), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8391 | Full paper
  • Power SB, Delage FPD, Chung CTY, Ye H and Murphy BF. 2017. Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall. Nature Communications, 8, 14368, doi:10.1038/ncomms14368 | Full paper
  • Power SB, Delage FPD, Wang GM, Smith I, Kociuba G. 2017. Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections. Climate Dynamics, 49, 53-69, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3326-x | Full paper
  • Risbey JS, Grose MR, Monselesan DP, O’Kane TJ, Lewandowsky S. 2017. Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation. Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2017.11.002 | Full paper
  • Risbey JS, O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Franzke CLE, Horenko I. 2018. On the Dynamics of Austral Heat Waves. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres, 123(1), 38-57, doi: 10.1002/2017jd027222 | Full paper
  • Santoso A, McPhaden MJ, Cai W. 2017. The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(4), 1079-1129, doi:10.1002/2017rg000560 | Full paper
  • Saunois M, et al. 2016. The global methane budget 2000–2012. Earth System Science Data, 8, 697–751, doi:10.5194/essd-8-697-2016 | Full paper
  • Saunois M, et al. 2016. The growing role of methane in anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 120207, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/120207 | Full paper
  • Saunois M, et al. 2017.  Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 11135-11161, doi:10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017 | Full paper
  • Silvano A, Rintoul SR, Peña-Molino B, Williams GD. 2017. Distribution of water masses and glacial meltwater on the continental shelf near the Totten Glacier. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, 122, 2050–2068, doi:10.1002/2016JC012115 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Tory KJ, Ye H, Dare RA. 2017. Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3752-4 | Abstract
  • Wang G, Cai W, Gan B, Wu L, Santoso A, Lin X, Chen Z, McPhaden MJ. 2017. Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5°C warming stabilisation. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3351 | Abstract
  • Wu Q, Zhang X, Church JA, Hu J. 2017 Changes and variability of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific during the altimeter era, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/2016JC012345 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
  • Zhang H, Zhao Y, Moise A, Ye H, Colman R, Roff G, Zhao M. 2017. On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study. Climate Dynamics, 1-19, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3690-1 | Full paper
  • Zhou XB, Alves O, Marsland SJ, Bi DH, Hirst AC. 2017. Multi-decadal variations of the South Indian Ocean subsurface temperature influenced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 69, doi:10.1080/16000870.2017.1308055 | Full paper

Books and book chapters

  • Franzke CLE, O’Kane TJ (Eds), 2017. Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, 468 pp. | Visit publisher