Decadal prediction and the predictability of marine heatwaves

Rough seas
PROJECT 2.3: Towards an ACCESS decadal prediction system

The marine, agriculture, energy and water sectors have consistently requested climate information at multi-year to decadal timescales. With new developments in innovative, multi-year-focused ocean data assimilation and prediction methods, we now have the capability to address these needs.

In this project, we’re developing the forecasting capability to fill the critical gap between seasonal climate predictions and multi-decadal climate projections, within ACCESS, Australia’s global climate model. This will enable the delivery of stakeholder-specific products to inform marine and agriculture policy and adaptive management strategies, for industry and the environment.

We’re also investigating and characterising the decadal-scale predictability of ocean temperature extremes around Australia. Ocean temperature extremes can have devastating consequences for marine life, fisheries, and aquaculture, making them environmentally and economically significant events. Tracking and predicting changes in marine extremes are key to managing and reducing their impacts in these sectors.

We’re improving understanding of the predictability of ocean temperature extremes over multi-year to decadal timescales.  We’re also examining past marine heatwave events to determine if they were the result of natural climate variability or climate change due to human activities.

Data from this project will feed into ACCESS, Australia’s global climate model. The projections developed through this research will better inform marine and coastal planning decisions, as well as fisheries and aquaculture.

For more information

Dr Terry O’Kane, CSIRO

 

This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenges:

Hydroclimate and water resources.

HYDROCLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES
Multi-year climate forecasts from this project will allow the water industry to take climate into account in meeting the year-to-year needs of water uses and in recognising and responding to potential challenges such as extended drought.

Food security, ecosystems and NRM.

FOOD SECURITY, ECOSYSTEMS AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Agricultural, marine and land ecosystems vary in their stress and productivity in response to climate variations. A better understanding of climate variability and forecasts of these variations is critical to adapting to these changes and maintaining food security. Multi-year forecasts from this work will be applied in partnership with agricultural and fishery industries to reduce impacts from climate variability and better sustain the industry.

Changes in coastal climate.

CHANGES IN COASTAL CLIMATE
This project will provide a clearer understanding of the processes setting year-to-year variability in coastal currents and extremes, and provide forecasts so we can better prepare for changes in the likelihood of coastal impacts.

Extremes and disaster risk management.

EXTREMES AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
Climate extremes vary in their frequency and intensity from year to year in association with changes in the ocean and atmosphere. This project will forecast changes in the statistics of these events, allowing more comprehensive assessments of the risk of extreme events.
Publications and papers
  • Crimp S, Nicholls N, Kokic P, Risbey JS, Gobbett D, Howden M. 2018. Synoptic to large-scale drivers of minimum temperature variability in Australia – long-term changes. International Journal of Climatology, 38, E237-E254. doi:10.1002/joc.5365 | Abstract
  • Franzke CLE, O’Kane TJ (Eds), 2017. Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, 468 pp. | Publisher website
  • Hobday AJ, Oliver ECJ, Sen Gupta A, Benthuysen JA, Burrows MT, Donat MG, Holbrook NJ, Moore PJ, Thomsen MS, Wernberg T and Smale DA. 2018. Categorizing and naming marine heatwaves. Oceanography. doi:10.5670/oceanog.2018.205 | Full text
  • O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS. 2016. A multiscale re-examination of the Pacific South American pattern. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 379–402, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0291.1 | Full paper
  • O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS, Horenko I, Franzke CLE. 2017. On memory, dimension, and atmospheric teleconnections. Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting, 3(1), 1–27, doi:10.1515/mcwf-2017-0001 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ, Benthuysen JA, Bindoff NL, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Mundy CN, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE. 2017. The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms16101 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ, Donat MG, Burrows MT, Moore PJ, Smale DA, Alexander LV, Benthuysen JA, Feng M, Sen Gupta A, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Scannell HA, Straub SC, Wernberg T. 2018. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature Communications, 9, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9 | Full paper
  • Oliver ECJ & Holbrook NJ. 2018. Variability and Long-Term Trends in the Shelf Circulation Off Eastern Tasmania. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. doi:10.1029/2018JC013994 | Abstract
  • Oliver ECJ, Lago V, Hobday AJ, Holbrook NJ, Ling SD, Mundy CN. 2018. Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability. Progress in Oceanography 161, 116-130, doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2018.02.007 | Abstract
  • Oliver ECJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Holbrook NJ, Bindoff NL. 2017. Anthropogenic and natural influences on record 2016 marine heatwaves. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0093.1 | Full paper
  • Risbey JS, O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Franzke CLE, Horenko I. 2018. On the Dynamics of Austral Heat Waves. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres, 123(1), 38-57, doi: 10.1002/2017jd027222 | Full paper
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