Changes in coastal climate

High-rise buildings along a Gold Coast beach

The challenge

Australia’s coastal zone is economically, culturally, socially and environmentally important. Most of Australia’s population and infrastructure is located here, along with a range of unique coastal and marine ecosystems.

In a changing climate Australia’s coasts are vulnerable to rising sea levels, more frequent and intense storms, ocean acidification and changes in rainfall, run-off, wave size and direction, and ocean currents. Impacts include shoreline erosion, flooding and saltwater inundation, as well as damage from storm surges and extreme weather events.

How the ESCC Hub is meeting the challenge

Improving our understanding of coastal and climate processes will provide coastal planners, developers and decision makers with the information they need to minimise risks now and in the future, and respond to the unavoidable impacts.

The following Hub activities are helping to meet this challenge.

Climate change may change the way ocean waves impact 50% of the world’s coastlines

Our coastlines play an important role in how we live, providing recreational outlets, supporting ecosystem biodiversity and containing millions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure and assets. Ocean waves, as well as sea levels, are important when considering climate risks to our coastlines. If warming continues in-line with current trends we are likely to experience significant changes in wave conditions with potential implications for coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.
Understanding ocean change
Marine and coastal climate services
Natural habitats for coastal protection and carbon sequestration
Applying Australia’s climate model
Shark Bay: A World Heritage Site at catastrophic risk

8 February 2019 Matthew Fraser, Ana Sequeira, Brendan Paul Burns, Diana Walker, Jon C. Day and Scott Heron The ESCC+
Breathing new life into old tide records

A project to digitise old tide records will enable analysis of how extreme sea levels along Australia’s coastline have changed over time – and you can be involved!
Understanding coastal hazards to reduce impacts

Our research into sea level, storm surges and waves will inform policy, planning and development decisions that will minimise the economic, environmental and human cost of coastal hazards.
International benchmarking of Australia’s climate model

We’ve updated Australia’s national climate model, the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), so it can participate in CMIP6 and therefore be used by national and international climate researchers.
Understanding climate variability and extremes

We’ve analysed past climate variability and extremes to enhance our understanding of the underpinning climate drivers, and shed light on the extent to which these extreme events are influenced by human activities.
Decadal prediction and the predictability of marine heatwaves

We’ve made significant steps towards developing a decadal forecasting system and capability to fill the critical gap between seasonal climate predictions and multi-decadal climate projections. We’ve also improved understanding of marine heat wave trends, causes, the influence of human activities and the predictability of ocean temperature extremes over multi-year to decadal timescales.
Understanding ocean heat uptake

We’ve used data collected from ocean monitoring (historical archives, Argo floats and research vessels) to improve understanding of past changes in ocean temperature and salinity. We also used this data to identify sources of bias in ocean heat update efficiency in climate models, as well as to examine the connection between ocean salinity changes and water balance over Australia.
Improving modelling of weather and climate extremes

We’ve improved ACCESS’s simulation of important climate processes in the Australasian region, focusing on rainfall and weather extremes, as well as climate variability and change.
Improving accessibility of regional climate projections

We’ve improved confidence in projections, particularly rainfall projections; run targeted workshops, presentations and training to better identify user needs and help stakeholders access climate change information; and produced more targeted projection products for stakeholders to use in decision-making.