PROJECT 2.6: Regional climate projections science, information and services
Our understanding of the climate system and our ability to simulate it in climate models are constantly evolving. At the same time, the needs of those using climate projections are increasing and becoming more sophisticated. This means there is an ongoing need to update and improve climate projection products and services with new data and lessons learned.
We’re improving confidence in projections, particularly rainfall projections, as a result of improved understanding of climate feedbacks and key climate processes. We’re also running targeted workshops, presentations and training to better identify user needs and help stakeholders access climate change information that is already available.
This will produce more targeted projection products for stakeholders to improve the usability and uptake of climate change information for adaptation and related activities. One such product is the development of a ‘Climate Change in Australia’ mobile app which will provide seasonal climate projection data across Australia up until 2090.
For more information
Dr Michael Grose, CSIRO
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenges:
The regional projections developed in this project will provide water managers with better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained. This will complement work done in the Australia’s water futures project.
Primary producers, conservation managers and natural resource managers will make better-informed management decisions using the regional projections developed in this project.
As a result of work undertaken in this project, disaster risk managers will have better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained. This will complement work done in the extreme weather projections project.
Project publications and papers
- Brown JR, Moise AF, Colman RA. 2017. Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5683–5690, doi:10.1002/2017GL073217 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
- Colman R, Power SB. 2018. What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity? Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4113-7 | Abstract
- NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. 2018. NextGen Climate Change Projections: Science ideas and issues for national climate projections in Australia, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 5, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report [Project 2.6]
- Grose MR, Colman RA, Andrews T. 2018. What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections? Geophysical Research Letters. 45(3), 1559-1566, doi:10.1002/2017gl075742 | Full paper
- Grose MR, Foster S, Risbey JS, Osbrough S, Wilson L. 2019. Using indices of atmospheric circulation to refine southern Australian winter rainfall climate projections, Climate Dynamics, pp1-13, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04880-4 | Abstract
- Grose MR, Risbey JS, Whetton PH. 2016. Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1840-9 | Abstract
- Grose MR, Syktus J, Thatcher M, Evans JP, Ji F, Rafter T, Remenyi T. 2019. The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions, Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04736-x | Abstract
- Grose MR and Dowdy AJ. 2019. Understanding the climate change information needs of the financial services sector. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 10, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia.
- Risbey JS, Grose MR, Monselesan DP, O’Kane TJ, Lewandowsky S. 2017. Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation. Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2017.11.002 | Full paper
- Zhang H, Zhao Y, Moise A, Ye H, Colman R, Roff G, Zhao M. 2017. On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study. Climate Dynamics, 1-19, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3690-1 | Full paper