PROJECT 5.3: Regional climate change projections science and delivery
To make informed decisions about managing current and future climate risks, decision-makers across government, industry and business require access to credible, up-to-date, useable and relevant information on future changes to our climate.
We’ve enhanced the functionality of the current suite of national climate change projections for existing and new users, including new analysis and communication products and updates to tools and guidance materials. The useability of the current projections has been supported through the provision of enhanced training and outreach activities, and tailored information and datasets to meet the needs of decision-makers and stakeholders. This will ensure users are better able to integrate climate change projections into their decision-making processes, leading to enhanced climate-resilience and sustainable development across Australia.
Visit the refreshed Climate Change in Australia website to access Australia’s national climate change projections, including updated information on impacts to Australia’s climate at specific global warming levels (such as 2 or 3 degrees Celsius) and state-based information on past and future changes.
We’ve continued to develop the underpinning projections science and modelling capability required for a future major release of new national projections. This has included applying new methods and addressing knowledge gaps to advance the science and modelling capability for the future next-generation of climate change projections for Australia.
We also facilitated and contributed to the coordination and development of plans for the delivery of a future major release of national climate change projections, bringing together key research agencies, funders and users to ensure future national projections are salient, relevant and accessible.
For more information
Dr Michael Grose, CSIRO
- New global climate models and what they say about projections of Australia’s future climate – This factsheet outlines how Hub researchers have studied a suite of new global climate models to evaluate their improved ability to project future changes to Australia’s climate.
- Reframing climate change projections for global warming levels – This factsheet outlines how the ESCC Hub has produced new climate change projections information which relate Australia’s future climate to a range of future global warming levels. This allows users to visualise and compare Australian climate change impacts under different global warming levels.
- Adding value to climate change projections through regional climate modelling – This factsheet discusses research by the Hub into the value of using regional, high resolution climate models to better understand Australia’s future climate, and whether these downscaled projections provide more value than projections from the lower resolution global climate models.
- Climate Measurement Standards Initiative climate science guidelines: Scenario analysis of climate-related physical risk for buildings and infrastructure. Access the report from the CMSI website.
- Our changing climate: using climate change information to 2030 – This brochure explains climate change and climate variability and how to take both into account for short-term (10-20 year time horizon) decision-making.
- Australia’s Next Generation of Regional Climate Projections: Final Report to the National Climate Science Advisory Committee – This ESCC Hub report sets out options for an update to Australia’s national projections, including key priorities, a proposed approach and information and technical needs to be considered. It also highlights the importance of active collaboration and coordination with state-led initiatives on regional climate projections.
- Towards the next generation of climate change projections for Australia – This short 2018 report provides a preliminary summary of a proposed approach and timeline for a new future suite of climate change projections.
Project publications and papers:
- Brown et al, 2020. Sensitivity of Australian Monsoon Rainfall to Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects under a Range of Emission Scenarios, Bureau Research Report No. 044. Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
- Colman RA, Soldatenko S. 2020. Understanding the links between climate feedbacks, variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model. Climate Dynamics, 54, 3441–3459, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05189-3 | Full paper
- Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Clarke H, Sharples J, Hirsch A, Hart MA. 2020. Climate change significantly alters future wildfire mitigation opportunities in south eastern Australia, Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2020GL088893 | Abstract
- Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Di Luca A, Grose MR, Round V, Thatcher M. 2020. Realised added value in dynamical downscaling of Australian climate change. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05250-1 | Full paper
- Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. 2020. Scenario analysis of climate-related physical risk for buildings and infrastructure: climate science guidance. Technical report by the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change Science (ESCC) Hub for the Climate Measurement Standards Initiative, ESCC Hub Report No.21. Full report and related summary reports [Case study 5.6]
- Grose MR et al. 2020. Insights from CMIP6 for Australia’s Future Climate. Earth’s Future, 8 (5), doi: 10.1029/2019EF001469 | Full paper
- Narsey SY, Brown JR, Colman R, Delage F, Power S, Moise A, Zhang H. 2020. Climate change projections for the Australian monsoon from CMIP6 models. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2019GL086816 | Accepted version. An edited version of this paper was published by John Wiley & Sons. Copyright 2020 John Wiley & Sons | Abstract
- Xu Y, Zhang H, Liu Y, Han Z, Zhou B. 2020. Atmospheric rivers in the Australia–Asian region under current and future climate in CMIP5 models. J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci. doi:10.1071/ES19044 | Full paper
This project is contributing to the following climate challenges:
The regional projections delivered in this project will provide water managers with access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material and training to support decision making.
Primary producers, conservation managers and natural resource managers will make better-informed management decisions using the regional projections developed in this project.
As a result of work undertaken in this project, disaster risk managers will have better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained.