Home ResearchResearch projectsImproving modelling of weather and climate extremes

Improving modelling of weather and climate extremes

by Karen Pearce
Enhanced weather satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Sam near the north-west coast of Western Australia
PROJECT 2.5: Improving Australia’s climate model (ACCESS)

This project ran from 1 July 2016 until 30 June 2019

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) equips Australia with a global climate modelling capability that is uniquely concerned with the weather and climate of the Australasian and Southern Hemisphere region.

We’ve improved ACCESS’s simulation of important climate processes in the Australasian region, focusing on rainfall and weather extremes, as well as climate variability and change. This will allow for multi-year to multi-decadal projections, as well as enabling better forecasting on daily through to seasonal time scales.

Key project achievements include:

  • Improved ACCESS model simulations and diagnostic tools for use by other Australian and international researchers (including other Hub projects) to progress their own climate research
  • Model improvements to ACCESS which enhance our confidence in Australian rainfall simulations in current and future climates – some of these improvements have been adoption by the UK Met Office for use in their climate models
  • More reliable ACCESS model predictions to better informed policy development and decision-making outcomes for the Australian Government and other stakeholders

Outcomes from this project will be used in the current Hub Project 5.1 – ACCESS evaluation and application.

For more information

Dr Harun Rashid, CSIRO


Watch the Project 2.5 summary video

June 2019


Project publications and papers
  • Colman RA, Brown JR, Franklin C, Hanson L, Ye H, Zelinka MD, 2019, Evaluating cloud feedbacks and rapid responses in the ACCESS model. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2018jd029189 | Full paper
  • Luhar AK, Galbally IE, Woodhouse MT, Thatcher M. 2017. An improved parameterisation of ozone dry deposition to the ocean and its impact in a global climate-chemistry model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 3749-3767, doi: 10.5194/acp-17-3749-2017 | Full paper
  • Nguyen H, Protat A, Zhu HY, Whimpey M. 2017. Sensitivity of the ACCESS forecast model statistical rainfall properties to resolution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 1967-1977, doi: 10.1002/qj.3056 | Full paper
  • Protat A, Klepp C, Louf V, Petersen WA, Alexander SP, Barros A, Leinonen J, Mace GG, 2019. The Latitudinal Variability of Oceanic Rainfall Properties and Its Implication for Satellite Retrievals: 1. Drop Size Distribution Properties. Journal of Geophysical Research -Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2019JD031011 | Full paper
  • Rashid HAH, Hirst AC. 2016. Mechanisms of improved rainfall simulation over the Maritime Continent due to increased horizontal resolution in an AGCM. Climate Dynamics, 49, 1747–1764, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3413-z | Full paper
  • Rashid H, Zhu H and Sun Z. 2017. Initial documentation of key systematic errors in a high-resolution (60 km grid) version of the current ACCESS atmospheric model. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 1, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report | Non-technical summary
  • Rashid HA, 2020. Delving deeper into Australia’s national climate model: the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS), NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 12, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report
  • Timmermann A, An S, Kug J, Jin F, Cai W, Capotondi A, Cobb K, Lengaigne M, McPhaden MJ, Stuecker MF, Stein K, Wittenberg AT, Yun K, Bayr T, Chen H, Chikamoto Y, Dewitte B, Dommenget D, Grothe P, Guilyardi E, Ham Y, Hayashi M, Ineson S, Kang D, Kim S, Kim W, Lee J, Li T, Luo J, McGregor S, Planton Y, Power SB, Rashid H, Ren H, Santoso A, Takahashi K, Todd A, Wang GM, Wang GJ, Xie R, Yang H, Yeh S, Yoon J, Zeller E, Zhang X. 2018. El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity. Nature, 559, 535-545, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by Springer Nature Publishing AG. Copyright 2018 Springer Nature Publishing AG | Abstract
  • Warren RA, Singh MS, Jakob C. 2020. Simulations of Radiative-Convective-Dynamical Equilibrium. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(3) doi: 10.1029/2019MS001734 | Full paper
  • Wheeler MC, Zhu HY, Sobel AH, Hudson D, Vitart F. 2017. Seamless precipitation prediction skill comparison between two global models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 374-383, doi:10.1002/qj.2928 | Full paper
  • Zhu H, Jakob C, Ma Y, Warren R, Santra A, Yorgen S and Sun Z. 2018. A comprehensive report of model systematic errors in the latest ACCESS climate models. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 3, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full reportNon-technical summary
  • Zhu HY, Maloney E, Hendon H, Stratton R. 2017. Effects of the changing heating profile associated with melting layers in a climate model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143, 3110-3121, doi:10.1002/qj.3166 | Full paper

This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenges:

Hydroclimate and water resources.

HYDROCLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES
Through improvements to ACCESS’s simulation of processes controlling Australia’s rainfall, this project will enhance the quality of projections that are available to water managers and planners.

Food security, ecosystems and NRM.

FOOD SECURITY, ECOSYSTEMS AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
This work will provide agricultural and environmental systems managers with better projections and climate information with which to make management decisions.

Carbon cycle and future warming.

CARBON CYCLE AND FUTURE WARMING
This project provides the underpinning climate modelling that is necessary for better understanding the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle.

Changes in coastal climate.

CHANGES IN COASTAL CLIMATE
Improvements to ACCESS in relation to weather extremes will enhance our ability to provide coastal planners with the information they need to make informed coastal planning and management decisions.

Extremes and disaster risk management.

EXTREMES AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
Work in this project will enhance our ability to project changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate conditions, which will better inform infrastructure planning.

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