PROJECT 5.1: ACCESS evaluation and application
Climate models are indispensable for understanding climate variability and the past and future changes in our climate. Australia’s national climate model, the Australian Community Climate and Earth Systems Simulator (ACCESS), has been developed by the Australian climate research community (including through Hub projects 2.1 and 2.5), and provides us with a modelling capability which can focus on the Australian and Southern Hemisphere region.
We’re enhancing the utility of ACCESS by using multiple versions of ACCESS to develop multiple model runs (called ‘ensembles’) of past and future climates.
We’re using the coupled and atmospheric model versions of ACCESS (ACCESS-CM and ACCESS-AM) to develop additional climate simulations to provide an ensemble of model runs on future climates under different scenarios. Combined with the ACCESS simulations submitted to the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6, this ensemble will provide better estimates of changes in future extreme rainfall and temperature over Australia. We’re also using the Earth Systems model version of ACCESS (ACCESS-ESM1.5) to provide ensemble simulations which will help quantify the effects of land management strategies for Australia under low and high emission scenarios.
This project will support other ESCC Hub projects to apply ACCESS to better understand the climate drivers of importance to the Australian region, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole, and how they may change in the future under a warming climate.
For more information
Dr Harun Rashid, CSIRO
This project is contributing to the following climate challenges:
This work will provide agricultural and environmental systems managers with better projections and climate information with which to make management decisions.
Through ACCESS simulations of processes controlling Australia’s rainfall, this project will enhance the quality of projections that are available to water managers and planners.
This project provides the underpinning climate modelling that is necessary for better understanding the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle.
Projections of future climate from ACCESS will provide coastal planners with the information they need to make informed coastal planning and management decisions.
Work in this project will enhance our ability to project changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate conditions, which will better inform infrastructure planning.
Publications and papers
- Rashid HA. 2020. Factors affecting ENSO predictability in a linear empirical model of tropical air-sea interactions. Science Reports. 10(1), 3931, doi:10.1038/s41598-020-60371-1 | Full paper
- Rashid HA, Dix M, Sullivan A, Bodman R, Zhu HY. 2020. ACCESS climate model simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 14. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report [Project 5.1]