Enhancing Australia’s capacity to manage climate variability and climate extremes in a changing climate
Heatwaves, floods and droughts in Australia cause high economic, agricultural and human costs. Managing the risks and reducing the costs associated with climate variability and extremes requires a transformation in our current understanding of the influence of climate change now and into the future.
We’re analysing past climate variability and extremes, and projections of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s impact on drought, to improve our understanding of the driving mechanisms and processes. Our focus is on longer timescale extremes, such as extended heatwaves and droughts, and the historical record of tropical cyclones. This research will inform the development of robust projections that will help Australia prepare for and respond to climate variability, extremes and change in the future.
For more information
Dr Pandora Hope, Bureau of Meteorology
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenges:
Modelling improvements developed in this project will enhance the quality of climate projections that are available to water managers and planners.
Agricultural and environmental managers will be able to use projections developed from work in this project to make more effective management decisions.
Research undertaken in this project will allow for better simulation of extreme events in climate projections, making them a more useful tool for governments and other agencies that are responsible for preparing for and managing the response to natural disasters.
Publications and papers
- Chung C, Power SB. 2017. The non-linear impact of El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation on seasonal and regional Australian precipitation. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 67(1), 25–45, doi:10.22499/3.6701.003
- Chung C, Power S, Santoso A, Wang G. 2017. Multi-year variability in the Tasman sea and impacts on Southern Hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0862.1
- Hope P, Wang G, Lim E-P, Hendon HH, Arblaster JM. 2016. What caused the record-breaking heat across Australia in October 2015? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S122–S126, doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0141.1
- Kajtar JB, Santoso A, McGregor S, England MH. 2017. Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3699-5
- Karoly D, Black M, Grose M, King A. 2016. The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), S127–S130, doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0139.1
- Power SB, Delage FPD, Chung CTY, Ye H and Murphy BF. 2017. Humans have already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall. Nature Communications, 8, 14368, doi:10.1038/ncomms14368
- Wang G, Cai W, Gan B, Wu L, Santoso A, Lin X, Chen Z, McPhaden MJ. 2017. Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5°C warming stabilisation. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3351
- Wang G, Hope P, Lim E-P, Hendon HH, Arblaster JM. 2016. Three methods for the attribution of extreme weather and climate events. Bureau Research Report No. 018. Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/research/publications/researchreports/BRR-018.pdf