How do researchers assess whether record temperatures were caused by climate change? They use a process called ‘extreme event attribution’. And they’ve just run an analysis for the record-breaking temperatures set in 2020.
Climate change may actually increase the number of burn days in some places, but the windows of opportunity will shift towards winter months. The bad news is that burning during these months potentially increases the public health impacts of smoke.
Firestorms are (pyrocumulonimbus bushfires) are fires so intense they create their own thunderstorms, extreme winds, black hail, and lightning. Human-caused climate change has already resulted in more dangerous weather conditions for bushfires in recent decades for many regions of Australia. This article outlines research which shows that from 2060 onwards, sharp increases in dangerous fire days across southeast Australia that coincided with atmospheric conditions primed to generate firestorms are projected. These extremely dangerous days also shifted across seasons, starting to appear in late spring.
The Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub has produced four synthesis brochures outlining the latest knowledge and Hub research on extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones, east coast lows, bushfires and thunderstorms, and how these events may change in the future as our climate continues to warm.
ESCC Hub research over the past three years under Project 2.2 has investigated the causes behind recent extreme climate events, including the contribution of human-caused climate change. The project team has worked to advance the scientific field of ‘detection and attribution’ of extreme events.
In this webinar, Tony Rafter (CSIRO) outlines current understanding of historical tropical cyclone behaviour, recent trends in the Australian region and future trends. He demonstrates how a new interactive web tool developed through the ESCC Hub – the Tropical Cyclone Projections Portal – is helping us understand and communicate potential changes in tropical cyclone frequency and location in future climates.