PROJECT 2.6: Regional climate projections science, information and services
This project ran from 1 July 2016 until 30 June 2019
Our understanding of the climate system and our ability to simulate it in climate models are constantly evolving. At the same time, the needs of those using climate projections are increasing and becoming more sophisticated. This means there is an ongoing need to update and improve climate projection products and services with new data and lessons learned.
We’ve improved confidence in projections, particularly rainfall projections, as a result of improved understanding of climate feedbacks and key climate processes. We have also run targeted workshops, presentations and training to better identify user needs and help stakeholders access climate change information that is already available.
This will produce more targeted projection products for stakeholders to improve the usability and uptake of climate change information for adaptation and related activities.
Outcomes from this project will be used in the current Hub Project 5.3 – Regional climate change projections science and delivery.
Key project achievements include:
- Built on the science of projections by improving understanding of key climate feedbacks and process
- Ensured government, private sector and research communities continue to have access to up-to-date, scientifically credible and relevant national-scale climate projections for use in decision-making, including guidance and training in the use of this information and data
- Facilitated engagement across the climate science community to begin planning towards the next suite of national climate change projections
For more information
Dr Michael Grose, CSIRO
Watch the Project 2.6 summary video
June 2019
Project publications and papers
- Brown JR, Moise AF, Colman RA. 2017. Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5683–5690, doi:10.1002/2017GL073217 | Pre-print version. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union | Abstract
- Colman R, Power SB. 2018. What can decadal variability tell us about climate feedbacks and sensitivity? Climate Dynamics, 51(9-10), 3815-3828, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4113-7 | Full paper
- Di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Di Luca A, Olson R, Argüeso D, Kala J, Andrys J, Hoffmann P, Katzfey JJ, Rockel B. 2019. Evaluating reanalysis-driven CORDEX regional climate models over Australia: model performance and errors. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04672-w | Full paper
- NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. 2018. NextGen Climate Change Projections: Science ideas and issues for national climate projections in Australia, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 5, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia. Full report [Project 2.6]
- Grose MR, Colman RA, Andrews T. 2018. What climate sensitivity index is most useful for projections? Geophysical Research Letters. 45(3), 1559-1566, doi:10.1002/2017gl075742 | Full paper
- Grose MR, Foster S, Risbey JS, Osbrough S, Wilson L. 2019. Using indices of atmospheric circulation to refine southern Australian winter rainfall climate projections. Climate Dynamics, pp1-13, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04880-4 | Full paper
- Grose MR, Risbey JS, Whetton PH. 2016. Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’. Climatic Change, 140, 307–322, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1840-9 | Full paper
- Grose MR, Syktus J, Thatcher M, Evans JP, Ji F, Rafter T, and Remenyi T. 2019. The role of topography on projected rainfall change in mid-latitude mountain regions. Climate Dynamics, 1-16, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04736-x | Full paper
- Grose MR and Dowdy AJ. 2019. Understanding the climate change information needs of the financial services sector. Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub Report No. 10, NESP Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, Australia.
Full report - Moise A, Smith A, Brown JR, Colman R, Narsey S. 2019. Observed and projected intra-seasonal variability of Australian monsoon rainfall, International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.6334 | Abstract
- Risbey JS, Grose MR, Monselesan DP, O’Kane TJ, Lewandowsky S. 2017. Transient response of the global mean warming rate and its spatial variation. Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2017.11.002 | Full paper
- Zhang H, Zhao Y, Moise A, Ye H, Colman R, Roff G, Zhao M. 2017. On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study. Climate Dynamics, 1-19, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3690-1 | Full paper
This project is contributing to meeting the following climate challenges:
HYDROCLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES
The regional projections developed in this project will provide water managers with better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained. This will complement work done in the Australia’s water futures project.
The regional projections developed in this project will provide water managers with better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained. This will complement work done in the Australia’s water futures project.
FOOD SECURITY, ECOSYSTEMS AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Primary producers, conservation managers and natural resource managers will make better-informed management decisions using the regional projections developed in this project.
Primary producers, conservation managers and natural resource managers will make better-informed management decisions using the regional projections developed in this project.
EXTREMES AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
As a result of work undertaken in this project, disaster risk managers will have better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained. This will complement work done in the extreme weather projections project.
As a result of work undertaken in this project, disaster risk managers will have better access to a range of web tools, data, guidance material, case studies and training to support decision making. Where possible, uncertainties will be constrained. This will complement work done in the extreme weather projections project.