Project 5.5

The ESCC Hub has investigated how fire-generated thunderstorms, such as those experienced during the 2019/20 Black Summer fires, are formed, their current trends and how these trends may change under a warming climate.

New Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub explores changes to the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones under a warming climate, including resulting rainfall pattern changes.

Climate change may actually increase the number of burn days in some places, but the windows of opportunity will shift towards winter months. The bad news is that burning during these months potentially increases the public health impacts of smoke.

New Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub research shows that the number of lows in southern Australia during 2019 was about half the number we expect in a normal year and the fewest recorded in at least 50 years.

New Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub research published in the Journal of Climate investigates how we can better understand which east coast lows cause the most severe impacts.

Firestorms are (pyrocumulonimbus bushfires) are fires so intense they create their own thunderstorms, extreme winds, black hail, and lightning. Human-caused climate change has already resulted in more dangerous weather conditions for bushfires in recent decades for many regions of Australia. This article outlines research which shows that from 2060 onwards, sharp increases in dangerous fire days across southeast Australia that coincided with atmospheric conditions primed to generate firestorms are projected. These extremely dangerous days also shifted across seasons, starting to appear in late spring.

The Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub has produced four synthesis brochures outlining the latest knowledge and Hub research on extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones, east coast lows, bushfires and thunderstorms, and how these events may change in the future as our climate continues to warm.

In this webinar, Tony Rafter (CSIRO) outlines current understanding of historical tropical cyclone behaviour, recent trends in the Australian region and future trends. He demonstrates how a new interactive web tool developed through the ESCC Hub – the Tropical Cyclone Projections Portal – is helping us understand and communicate potential changes in tropical cyclone frequency and location in future climates.

We’ve examined historical extreme events and their causes to better understand how, when and where extreme weather events occur. We also assessed the ability of climate models to simulate extreme weather events, and investigated the causes of projected future changes in extremes. We engaged with stakeholders to ensure project products were used to inform management and policy activities.